CANADA DATA: CFIB Survey Points To Stabilizing Inflation, Activity In Q4
Nov-20 12:48
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) 12-month Business Barometer jumped to 55.5 in November from 46.7 prior. This was an 11-month high, and marked the 3rd 50+ reading in the last 5 months, suggesting some solidity in what is a very volatile indicator gauging small businesses' business outlooks.
- Overall the gains are roughly consistent with Q/Q real GDP expansion.
- The short-term optimism index (based on a 3-month outlook) rose by 1.2 points but is still only at 46.0.
- Per the report, long-term confidence improved across most sectors - "The only sectors remaining below the 50-point mark are information, arts and recreation, and transportation and warehousing services" - and we took notice of a lack of mention of the US-Canada trade dispute in the report writeup, having been the dominant theme over the course of 2025.
- We also took note of the pullback in average planned price increases over the next 12 months, to 2.5%, the lowest in a year, with wage increases steady at 2.2%. That said, "Full-time staffing plans show a fragile labour market, with more employers looking to reduce staff (16%) than hiring (12%)", and "Insufficient demand persists as the primary barrier to business and production expansion (as reported by 56% of SMEs".
- While not a Tier 1 indicator, the CFIB does add a small piece of evidence of economic and price stability in Q4, which combined with October's solid jobs and inflation data should keep the BOC on the sidelines in December.
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