EMERGING MARKETS: Central Bank Decisions Next Week
Feb-02 17:20
- POLAND: The National Bank of Poland are widely expected to hold rates steady at 5.75% on Wednesday for its fourth consecutive meeting. The baseline scenario among most sell-side analysts is for the NBP to stand pat on rates until at least March when the next set of macroeconomic projections are released. Meanwhile, sticky inflation will warrant the central bank’s cautious approach to rate cuts at this juncture.
- CZECHIA: The Czech National Bank will meet on Thursday and will present an updated set of macroeconomic forecasts. While expectations had been firm that the 25bp cutting pace be maintained from December, dovish rhetoric ahead of the CNB blackout period prompted a shift in sentiment among analysts, some of whom now see higher odds of an outsized rate cut.
- LATAM: Also on Thursday, Mexico’s central bank will likely keep rates unchanged at 11.25%, although analysts will carefully monitor the statement for any guidance on potential easing later in Q1. In Peru, the BCRP are expected to maintain the gradual pace of easing, cutting the reference rate by 25bps to 6.25%. However, further progress on inflation has sparked debate among analysts as to whether the easing pace should be accelerated.
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LOOK AHEAD: Thursday Data Calendar: ADP, Weekly Claims, S&P Global PMIs
Jan-03 17:20
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Jan-4 0730 Challenger Job Cuts YoY (-40.8%, --)
- Jan-4 0815 ADP Employment Change (103k, 121k)
- Jan-4 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (218k, 216k)
- Jan-4 0830 Continuing Claims (1.875M, 1.880M)
- Jan-4 0945 S&P Global US Services PMI (51.3, 51.3)
- Jan-4 0945 S&P Global US Composite PMI (51.0, --)
- Jan-4 1130 US Tsy $80B 4W, $80B 8W Bill auctions
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Jan-03 17:15
- EUR/USD: Jan05 $1.1075(E1.1bln); Jan09 $1.0965-75(E1.1bln)
- USD/JPY: Jan09 Y143.60($1.0bln)
- AUD/USD: Jan09 $0.6600(A$2.2bln)
US STOCKS: Equities Roundup: Off Lows, Energy, Communication Services Leading
Jan-03 16:59
- Still weaker, stock have gradually recovered from midmorning lows, Energy and Communication Services outperforming. At the moment: DJIA is down 231.5 points (-0.61%) at 37484.98, S&P E-Mini future down 33.25 points (-0.69%) at 4754.25, Nasdaq down 134.7 points (-0.9%) at 14632.01.
- Leading gainers: Energy sector shares supported by oil and gas refiners that rallied traded strong with crude prices rebounding in the first half (WTI +2.12 at 72.50): Marathon Petroleum +2.62%, Valero +1.13%. Equipment and services shares also helped buoy Energy shares in the first half: Haliburton +1.83%, Schlumberger +1.02%, Baker Hughes +0.38%. Meanwhile telecom shares buoyed Communication Services: Verizon +1.17%, T-Mobile +0.97%.
- Laggers: Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary sector shares underperforming, estate services shares weighing on the former: CBRE -4% after downgrade from Evercore, CoStar Group -2.22%. Autos and parts makers weighed on the Consumer Discretionary sector: Aptiv -5.03% following a downgrade by Baird, Borg Warner -4.88%, Tesla -3.73%.
- Reminder, the next quarterly earnings cycle starts in earnest next week Friday with UnitedHealth, BlackRock, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, Citigroup and Bank of NY Mellon.
