EMERGING MARKETS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary - EURHUF Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

May-04 10:59
  • EURHUF traded sharply higher on Apr 19 and breached the 20-day EMA. The cross has failed to hold on to those gains and has traded lower since Apr 20. Any resumption of the recovery would open 379.79, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. Attention is on the bear trigger at 369.47, the Apr 18 low. Clearance of this level would resume the primary downtrend and open 366.41, the Mar 30 2022 low.
  • EURPLN remains in a downtrend and the cross traded to a fresh cycle low on Tuesday of 4.5657. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 4.5599 next, the May 30 2022 low. A breach of this support would open 4.5252, the Feb 23 2022 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 4.6171, the 20-day EMA.

Historical bullets

OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Technical Signals Remain Bullish

Apr-04 10:48
  • On the commodity front, trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. Note that price action since Mar 20 appears to be a pennant - a continuation pattern. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension higher near-term. The recent test above $2000.0 opens $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. $1918.3 marks a firm support, the Mar 17 low - a break would signal scope for a deeper pullback.
  • In the Oil space, WTI futures remain in a bull cycle and Monday’s gap higher strengthens this current condition. The contract has touched a high of $81.69, just above resistance at $81.04, the Mar 7 high. A clear break of $81.04 would signal scope for a continuation higher and open $83.04, the Jan 23 high. Key support is seen at $75.72, the Mar 31 high and the gap low on the daily chart. A pullback, if seen, would be considered corrective.

US TSYS: Modest Paring Of Yesterday’s Gains, JOLTS On The Docket

Apr-04 10:44
  • Cash Tsys hold only modest cheapening pressure in a slight paring of yesterday’s gains as they outperform core EU FI across the curve. With data starting to come into focus again, today sees JOLTS and factory orders, before ISM services and ADP employment tomorrow all gearing up towards payrolls on Friday. On JOLTS, openings are again seen easing in Feb but have surprised to the upside for the past three months.
  • 2YY +3.5bp at 3.999%, 5YY +4.5bp at 3.546%, 10YY +3.9bp at 3.451%, 30YY +2.7bp at 3.655%.
  • TYM3 trades 6 ticks lower at 115-08+, just half a tick off session lows but still towards the high of yesterday’s sizeable range of 114-18 to 115-21+. Support remains just below that with the 20-day EMA of 114-13.
  • Data: JOLTS Feb (1000ET), Factory orders/final durable goods Feb (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Gov Cook intro remarks (0830ET), Collins on careers (1345ET), Mester (1845ET, text + Q&A).
  • No issuance

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: Remains Above Last Week’s Low

Apr-04 10:42
  • RES 4: 117-29+ High Aug 26 2022 (cont)
  • RES 3: 117-14+ High Aug 29 / 30 2022 (cont)
  • RES 2: 116-06+/117-01+ High Mar 27 / High Mar 24 and bull trigger
  • RES 1: 115-21+ High Mar 3
  • PRICE: 115-10+ @ 11:31 BST Apr 4
  • SUP 1: 114-13/07 20-day EMA / Low Mar 29 and 30
  • SUP 2: 113-29+ 50-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 113-26 Low Mar 22
  • SUP 4: 113-08+ Low Mar 15

Treasury futures started the week on a firmer note as the contract recovered from last week’s 114-07 low on Mar 29 / 30. However, a bearish threat remains present following last week’s bearish signals - a shooting star on Mar 24 and a bearish engulfing candle on Mar 27. On the downside, the trigger for a resumption of weakness is 114-07. On the upside, a continuation higher would instead expose key resistance at 117-01+, the Mar 24 high.