US FISCAL: CBO Eyes Potential For "X-Date" As Early As May

The Congressional Budget Office reports that per its estimates "if the debt limit [$36.1T] remains unchanged, the government's ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will probably be exhausted in August or September 2025."

• But it also warns that the so-called "x-date" could happen as soon as May - "If the government's borrowing needs are significantly greater than CBO projects, the Treasury's resources could be exhausted in late May or sometime in June, before tax payments due in mid-June are received or before additional extraordinary measures become available on June 30. Conversely, if borrowing needs fall short of the amounts in CBO's projections, the extraordinary measures will permit the Treasury to continue financing government activities longer than expected."
• More specifically on risks to its central estimate, "If borrowing needs from March through July were significantly greater than 36 percent of total borrowing—the highest percentage recorded over the past three years—those needs could exceed the combined $820 billion in cash and extraordinary measures estimated to be available over that period, in which case the Treasury would run out of resources before August 1. Conversely, if borrowing through July totaled 25 percent of the projected borrowing for the year, or about $500 billion, extraordinary measures might last through the end of September."
• The CBO report goes through individual major payments expected over the coming months (PDF).
• A debt limit solution will have to be reached by October or so to avoid default. Per CBO: "In any case, any remaining extraordinary measures would probably be rapidly exhausted after September 30 because, in addition to the monthly payments due in the first days of October, the Treasury is required to issue more than $150 billion in special-issue securities to the Military Retirement Fund."
• Other estimates have been similarly broad, including the Bipartisan Policy Center which saw a breach of the debt ceiling sometime between mid-July and October, but the CBO's estimate is seen carrying more weight in terms of the urgency.
• Treasury currently has around $163B of "extraordinary measures" remaining for authorities to use to fend off hitting the debt limit as of March 19, per the latest release of Treasury data. That's up from $86B on Mar 17 and a low of $34B on Feb 24, and a little under half of the $377B in measures available. That's in addition to $386B in Treasury cash.
• But of course the big question is how strong tax collections are in the key month of April. Treasury wrote to Congress this month that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.