TAIWAN: CB Sees Financial System Stable Despite Broad FX Losses in April

May-29 08:39

Taiwan's 2025 financial stability report certainly eyed more carefully after recent currency volatility. The report states the insurance sector suffered a TWD 118bln FX loss in April (USD/TWD dropped 3.6% over the month), but losses would have been well over double that on a pre-hedging basis (TWD 322bln), and as such the financial system remains generally stable. Full report for download is here (only available in Mandarin so far): https://www.cbc.gov.tw/tw/cp-899-182554-5fef0-1.html

  • Worth noting that the USD/TWD fell further, and more sharply, in early days of May: as much as 7.7% over the course of two sessions - meaning FX losses for insurers were likely of a much higher magnitude as both the spot move and the sharp increase in hedging costs will have eaten into positioning.
  • The report acknowledges the life insurance sector, with large domestic & foreign investment positions, faces higher market risks ahead. Implied vols are likely one of these risks - feeding directly into hedging costs and forcing firms to seek more cost effective hedges via the likes of HKD, IDR and KRW - a key driver of the APAC FX vol earlier this month.

Historical bullets

EQUITIES: Estoxx call spread

Apr-29 08:37

SX5E (18th July) 5500/5900cs, bought for 31 in 5k.

EGB SYNDICATION: 3.00% Jun-49 Green OAT: Spread set

Apr-29 08:34
  • Spread set at 3.00% Jul-49 OAT + 13bps (guidance was +15bp area)
  • Size: EUR benchmark (MNI expects E4-8bln)
  • Books in excess of E59bln (inc JLM interest)
  • Settlement: May 7, 2025 (T+5)
  • Bookrunners: Barclays, BNPP (B&D), BofA, CA-CIB, HSBC, Natixis
  • Timing: MNI expects to price today

Source: Bloomberg and MNI colour

SWAPS: German ASW Term Structure Twists

Apr-29 08:26

German ASWs vs. 3-month Euribor +0.5bp to -0.7bp, with limited Schatz spread widening bucking the trend of spread narrowing seen across the remainder of the ASW term structure.

  • There isn’t a clear driver for the weakness in the long end, with our best guess being that the presence of broader EGB supply could be weighing on long end ASWs (outright German yields are 2-3bp lower on the day, with modest underperformance in the long end).