JGBS: Cash Bonds Modestly Richer, 40Y Supply Tomorrow, BoJ Decision On Fri
JGB futures are firmer and at session highs, +10 compared to settlement levels.
- In November, core machine orders data significantly exceeded expectations. Additionally, both Industrial Production (year-over-year) and Capacity Utilization (month-over-month) showed improvement, although both metrics remain in negative territory. However, the Tertiary Industry Index for November declined by 0.3% month-over-month, falling short of the estimated 0.1% growth.
- The BoJ is expected to raise interest rates on Friday barring any market shocks when U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office, a move that would lift short-term borrowing costs to levels unseen since the 2008 global financial crisis.
- A tightening in policy would underscore the central bank's resolve to steadily push up interest rates, now at 0.25%, to near 1% - a level analysts see as neither cooling nor overheating Japan's economy. (per RTRS)
- The cash US tsy market and stock exchanges are closed today for Martin L. King Day. Also noteworthy, the Federal Reserve entered its policy blackout at midnight Friday through January 30.
- Cash JGBs are 1-2bps richer across benchmarks beyond the 1-year. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.7bps lower at 1.196% versus the cycle high of 1.262%.
- Swap rates are 1-2bps lower. Swap spreads are little changed.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see 40-year supply.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU WANTS GOVT TO PREPARE FOR NEW US ADMINISTRATION
- TRUDEAU DOESN'T ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS LEADERSHIP
USDCAD TECHS: A Pullback Would Be Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4537 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4356 @ 16:56 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 1.4174/4014 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. While price faded into the Thursday close, the recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest rally opens 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4174, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
- RES 3: 0.6501 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 1: 0.6337/6396 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6263 @ 16:55 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and Wednesday’s sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6396, the 20-day EMA.
