JGBS: Cash Bond Twist-Flattener, 40Y Rallies Strongly, 40Y Auction On July 23
Jul-16 05:19
JGB futures are weaker but off session lows, -8 compared to the settlement levels. * Cash US tsys a...
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Jun-16 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 16-Jun | 0900 | IT | HICP (f) |
| 16-Jun | 1130 | EU | ECB Cipollone At Osservatorio Banca Impresa Meeting |
| 17-Jun | 1000 | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 18-Jun | 0830 | EU | ECB Elderson At SRB Legal Conference 2025 |
| 18-Jun | 0900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 18-Jun | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 18-Jun | 1600 | EU | ECB Lane At Macroprudential Conference |
| 18-Jun | 1900 | EU | EC de Guindos at Osservatorio Permanente Giovani |
| 19-Jun | 0830 | EU | ECB's Lagarde On Economic and Financial Integration |
| 19-Jun | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
| 19-Jun | 1045 | EU | ECB de Guindos On Eurozone Economic Outlook |
| 19-Jun | 1130 | EU | ECB Lagarde Keynote At Economic Integration Conference |
| 19-Jun | ---- | EU | ECB Cipollone At Eurogroup Meeting |
| 19-Jun | 1700 | EU | ECB Lagarde At Financi'Elles event |
| 20-Jun | 0700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Jun | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 20-Jun | ---- | EU | ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN Meeting |
| 20-Jun | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
EURUSD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact
Jun-16 05:12
- RES 4: 1.1783 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
- RES 3: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
- RES 2: 1.1685 76.4% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Sep ‘22 downleg
- RES 1: 1.1631 High Jun 12
- PRICE: 1.1547 @ 06:12 BST Jun 16
- SUP 1: 1.1404 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.1267/1.1210 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 29
- SUP 3: 1.1131 Low May 16
- SUP 4: 1.1065 Low May 12 and a reversal trigger
A bullish EURUSD theme remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Last Thursday’s rally resulted in a breach of key resistance at 1.1573, the Apr 21 high. This strengthens the bullish theme and confirms a resumption of this year's uptrend. Sights are on 1.1696 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 1.1404, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 1.1267. Short-term weakness is considered corrective.
JGBS: Cheaper, BoJ Decision Tomorrow, Ueda Presser & Taper Program In Focus
Jun-16 05:07
JGB futures are weaker, -52 compared to the settlement levels, and hovering near the session’s worst level.
- Cash US tsys are 2-3bps cheaper in today's Asia-Pac session. As we head into the June Fed meeting week, the next cut is only fully priced by the October FOMC meeting, with September seeing a roughly 80% implied probability.
- The BoJ is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.50% tomorrow. The key area of interest will be Governor Kazuo Ueda’s post-meeting press conference. Investors will closely examine his comments for any signals on the timing and likelihood of future rate hikes. If the BoJ begins to hint at stronger underlying inflationary trends or shows greater optimism about the economy, it could stoke expectations of a rate hike in the autumn.
- The second area of market focus is on the BoJ’s JGB purchase program. Market expectations suggest a slower pace of reductions during fiscal year 2026. If the BoJ chooses to maintain the current pace of ¥400 billion reductions per quarter in FY2026, this would be interpreted as a mildly hawkish move. (See MNI BoJ Preview here)
- Cash JGBs are flat to 4bps cheaper across benchmarks, with the 5-7-year zone leading.
- The swaps curve has twist-flattened, with rates 1bp higher to 1bp lower.
