CANADA: "CARNEY: SOME OF OUR RED LINES IN US TRADE TALKS HAVE BEEN REMOVED

Inflation series will be the focus in an otherwise quiet week. The Melbourne Institute inflation gauge for September prints today and its measure of consumer inflation expectations for October is out Thursday. October Westpac consumer sentiment is released Tuesday.

• With the next CPI report not until 28 October, other price indices will be watched closely. MI’s inflation gauge has been trending higher since June reaching 4.8% in August driven by higher fuel prices. A moderation in September would be welcome but retail petrol prices rose 8.2% in the month.
• MI October consumer inflation expectations print Thursday. They held steady at an elevated 4.9% in September but the Q3 average 4.8% was below Q2’s 5.7%.
• Final September S&P Global PMIs are also released Monday. The flash readings showed a decline in September but the Q3 average signals stronger growth than Q2.
• Tuesday sees Westpac consumer confidence for October which fell 5.2% in September. The contrast between pre- and post- RBA 29 September rate hike will be of interest.
• September ANZ job ads are published Tuesday. They rose 2.5% m/m in August.
• There is a public holiday in NSW, SA, Qld and ACT on Monday.

• RES 3: 96.064 - 61.8% retracement Oct ‘25 - Mar Downleg (cont) 
• RES 2: 95.925 - High Jan 9 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 1: 95.670 - High Jun 25 / 29 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 95.075 @ 17:20 BST Oct 02
• SUP 1: 94.875 - Low Sep 14
• SUP 2: 94.719 - Lower 3.0% Bollinger Band
• SUP 3: 94.149 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

A medium-term uptrend in Aussie 3-yr futures since Mar 23 has concluded with the latest sell-off, leaving markets to determine if the break of support in early September marks an end of the bull cycle. The contract looks more stable above lows on the RBA statement, which stopped short of committing to fresh rate hikes. Nonetheless, price has broken key M/T support at 95.035 (cont), the Mar 23 low. This leaves vol band support into 94.149 and 94.719 of interest. Key resistance and bull trigger is 95.670, the Jun 25 / 29 high.