ENERGY: Canada Week: B.C. Premier Willing To Support Oil Pipeline From Alberta

Goldman Sachs note that through Tuesday, “the last eight trading sessions have seen opposing one-day moves in the USD and in SPX (either SPX up and USD down, or SPX down and USD up), which is the longest streak of that type so far this year”.

• This corresponds with the “1-month rolling beta of USD returns to SPX returns moving negative for the first time since early March”. Goldman partially attributes this to the “shift in the source of global growth and risk shocks away from the U.S., and toward rest of world (in this case mostly geopolitical developments in the Middle East)”.

• US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -5.84M TO 415.1M JUN 20 WK
• US EIA: DISTILLATE STOCKS -4.07M TO 105.3M IN JUN 20 WK
• US EIA: GASOLINE STOCKS -2.08M TO 227.9M IN JUN 20 WK
• US EIA: CUSHING STOCKS -0.46M TO 22.2M BARRELS IN JUN 20 WK
• US EIA: SPR +0.24M TO 402.5M BARRELS IN JUN 20 WK
• US EIA: REFINERY UTILIZATION WEEK CHANGE +1.5% TO 94.7% IN JUN 20 WK

New home sales fell to an 18-month low in May, with the 13.7% M/M drop to 623k (seasonally-adjusted, annual rate) adding to evidence that overall US housing market activity is deteriorating. Sales weakened across 3 of 4 US regions, dropping 21% M/M in the South (which makes up more than half of national sales).

• Median prices - which aren't seasonally-adjusted - fell 2% Y/Y and have declined on that basis in 10 of the last 12 months. To put into perspective on a multi-year horizon, median prices were $407k in May 2025, compared to $429k in May 2022 and $316k in May 2020 (early pandemic).
• There are 507k new units for sale, the most since October 2007. The current pace of sales is equivalent to 9.8 months of supply, a 32-month high, up from <4 at the tightest periods of the pandemic in 2021 when demand was rampant.
• Supply of both existing and new homes is picking up sharply, with an increasing overhang in the latter beginning to look increasingly perilous - the latest NAHB report showing a continued increase in homebuilders (37%) cutting prices to bring in buyers amid high sustained mortgage rates. While new home sales are only 13% of overall sales (existing are the remaining 87%), they make up 25% of houses for sale on the market.
• This puts Thursday's pending home sales into focus, as a leading indicator of existing home sales, and following weak NAHB and building permits/starts data for May. It looks increasingly clear that residential investment will drag on GDP in 2025.