CANADA DATA: Surprisingly Large Current Account Deficit In Q2
Aug-29 13:53
- Canada's current account deficit widened to CAD8.5B in Q2 (Bloomberg consensus 6.0B) after CAD3.1B in Q1. Canada has posted deficits for eight consecutive quarters.
- It was driven by a higher goods trade deficit, increasing to CAD2.2B from a marginal deficit in Q1.
- Auto imports drove the increase +5.3% QOQ, whilst metal imports also rose +8.1% to CAD16.1B mainly from gold imports.
- Partly offsetting this larger goods deficit was the services deficit narrowing to CAD3.2B in Q2.
- In the financial account, foreign direct investment in Canada jumped to +CAD38.5B in Q2, boosted by $21.2bn of M&A activities, after a "rare" divestment in Q1. This was the highest nominal amount since Q4 2007 or since mid-2015 on a % GDP basis.
- Canadian direct investment abroad meanwhile fell to CAD21.2B in Q2 after CAD29.2B.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
UK DATA: Should we strip hotel prices out when analysing services CPI? (2/2)
Jul-30 13:47
- And two of these hotels saw large M/M swings in pricing: with one hotel in Wales seeing a 176.4% increase M/M and another hotel in the North West recording a 145% M/M increase.
- There is a lot of criticism of taking out volatile components in inflation baskets - the volatility can be masking a larger underlying trend - but this example shows how a handful of hotels seeing large price changes can have large impact on the overall subcomponent - and hence on wider services (and headlines) inflation.
- These issues are nowhere near as prevalent in goods or services that are priced mostly homogenously, but looking into the methodology involved, it is easy to see why some (include MPC members) prefer to strip some of these factors out of the CPI numbers they are looking at.
CORN TECHS: (Z4) Bearish Trend Condition
Jul-30 13:46
- RES 4: $519.75 - High Nov 15 ‘23
- RES 3: $510.25 - High Dec 26 ‘23
- RES 2: $478.00/496.75 - High Jun 14 / High May 15 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $436.69 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $406.50 @ 14:34 BST Jul 30
- SUP 1: $403.00 - Low Jul 12
- SUP 2: $400.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 3: $387.00 - 2.618 proj of the May 28 - Jun 6 - 14 price swing
- SUP 4: $373.75 - 3.00 proj of the May 28 - Jun 6 - 14 price swing
Corn futures remain in a clear downtrend and recent weakness reinforced the current bearish theme. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low earlier this month, confirming a resumption of the primary downtrend. Sights are on the $400.00 psychological handle next. Initial key resistance is at $436.69, the 50-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective. A recovery would allow an oversold condition to unwind.
UK DATA: Should we strip hotel prices out when analysing services CPI? (1/2)
Jul-30 13:44
- There was a further upside surprise to services CPI in the June report, but this was very narrowly focused on accommodation prices and we don’t think that it will alter the view of any MPC member.
- Note that accomodation services contributed 0.09ppt to the change in headline CPI in June (roughly double that for its contribution to services CPI).
- Overnight hotel stays make up a large proportion of the accommodation index.
- The ONS has 125 hotels in its sample, of which there were only 56/125 hotel prices that the ONS was able to use in its calculation for the June data. (The excluded hotels had prices that were temporarily unavailable – which in a large proportion of cases is because they were not accepting bookings for a single night stay on the day of the survey period – possibly because they were fully booked).
- Of these only 34 were able to provide a price for both May and June (which in itself shows the changing availability of hotels prices in the sample on a month-to-month basis).
