SONIA: Call Condor seller

Qatari negotiators have confirmed the long-speculated deal that will see a four-day ceasefire come into effect in Gaza within the next 24 hours. The deal sees Hamas release 50 Israeli hostages taken in the 7 Oct attacks in exchange for Israel releasing 150 Palestinian prisoners that it holds. The deal will also see an another day added to the ceasefire for each 10 additional hostages released.

• Qatari PM Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani stated that the deal would prove a "comprehensive and sustainable agreement" that would allow both Israel and Hamas to "put an end to the war and the bloodshed".
• The four-day ceasefire is the longest agreed during the course of the Israel-Hamas war so far, but it remains to be seen how sustainable it will be. Given the extremely high tensions involved, once the ceasefire is announced a single rocket attack from Gaza into Israel, or shot fired by an Israeli Defence Force soldier could prove enough for a resumption in hostilities.
• Even if the ceasefire holds, should the process of hostage releases be sustained at an initial 50 followed by 10 a day then all ~240 Israeli hostages should be released in around 20 days.
• It remains to be seen at this point whether the IDF ramps up its efforts to crush Hamas, or once all the hostages are released the unity gov't is dissolved and PM Benjamin Netanyahu faces serious pressure to resign amid tumbling public support.

The early downtick in gilts is limited as core global FI futures recover to levels witnessed around the time of Tuesday’s gilt close.

• Futures last show -35, just shy of the top of a narrow 18 tick early range, holding on to late Tuesday losses.
• Cash gilt yields are 1.5-3.5bp higher across the curve, with light bear flattening seen.
• A quick reminder that bulls remain in short-term technical control, with last week’s high (97.99) providing initial resistance. Bears need to break initial support in the form of the Nov 15 low (95.93), which is a big figure or so away from prevailing levels.
• SONIA futures and BOE-dated OIS are roughly in line with levels seen pre-gilt open.
• Local headline flow has seen continued focus on today’s Autumn Statement, with the UK press pointing to an emphasis on business tax cuts (after PM Sunak intimated that focus of any tax relief measures will largely centre on the supply side of the economy), in addition to national insurance tax cuts for individuals (press outlets have flagged the likelihood a pre-election income tax cut in the Spring Budget).
• See our full preview of that event here.