OPTIONS: Bund Options Feature In Return To Trading Friday

• RES 4: 1.0937 High Nov 5 and key short-term resistance  
• RES 3: 1.0772 50-day EMA  
• RES 2: 1.0624 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0580/0610 High Nov 27 / 20     
• PRICE: 1.0564 @ 16:14 GMT Nov 27
• SUP 1: 1.0335 Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing  
• SUP 4: 1.0201 61.8% retracement of the Sep 28 - Juk 18 bull leg     

A downtrend in EURUSD remains intact, however, the pair continues to trade above last week’s low. The Nov 22 price pattern - a hammer candle - highlights a possible short-term base and if correct, the start of a corrective cycle. The trend is oversold and a recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is 1.0624, the 20-day EMA. For bears, a move through 1.0335, the Nov 22 low would resume the downtrend. 

• The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow has lifted its real GDP growth tracker for Q4 by a tenth to 2.7% annualized vs 2.6% on Nov 19, after today’s unrevised Q3 estimate of 2.8%.
• That’s down from 2.8% with yesterday’s intra-update estimate after new home sales (interestingly considered sales were much weaker than expected with signs of weather disruption) after today’s data included GDP, personal income and durable goods releases.
• Q4 tracking continues to point to solid final domestic demand but at a 2.8pp contribution it would see a pull back from the particularly strong 3.5pp in Q3.
• Net exports are currently seen as the main offsetting factor (considering GDP growth is seen at a similar pace between Q3 and Q4) with a boost of 0.3pp in Q4 after dragging -0.6pps in Q3.  

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Biden administration is unlikely to have sufficient time to complete thetransfer of all remaining Ukraine funds before President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on Janaury 20, leaving the incoming administration with discretion over potentially billions of unspent funds.  

• The Journal notes: "The Pentagon has reached the limit of the weapons it can send Ukraine each month without affecting its own fighting capability, however, and is facing logistical challenges in getting the arms to Kyiv’s forces, they said." A Congressional official told the Journal that shipping around USD$3 billion in outstanding funds available in presidential drawdown authority would likely be "impossible."
• The report notes: "What Trump decides to do with the remaining money will have implications for the battlefield and could help determine how much leverage Kyiv has going into any potential peace negotiations with Russia. Trump has said he would end the war, and U.S. officials worry that his incoming administration could choose to withhold weapons to get Kyiv to the negotiating table."
• A senior White House official told reporters today that the Ukrainians, “now have healthy stockpiles of the vital tools, ammunition and weapons that they need to succeed on the battlefield... the most pressing challenge for Ukraine is manpower."
• Michael Kofmanat the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace thinktank, said that the remaining funds “offer the next administration considerable leverage to stop or suspend shipments to Ukraine.”