USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 94.57 2.236 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing 
• RES 3: 94.15 2.000 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing     
• RES 2: 94.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 93.76 Intraday high
• PRICE: 93.54 @ Close BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 92.78 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 92.23 Low Jun 16 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 91.56 Low Jun 9   
• SUP 4: 91.44 Low Jun 8        

A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and recent weakness has proved to be a correction. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a print above 93.68, the Jun 13 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started May 22. This would open 94.00. Key short-term support has been defined 92.23, the Jun 16 low. First support lies at 92.78, the 20-day EMA. 

• RES 4: 5486.00 High May 20 and a key bull trigger  
• RES 3: 5456.00 High Jun 11 
• RES 2: 5403.00 High Jun 12 
• RES 1: 5366.00 High Jun 30    
• PRICE: 5330.00 @ 06:27 BST Jul 2 
• SUP 1: 5194.00 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger    
• SUP 2: 5182.00 Low May 2 
• SUP 3: 5100.94 38.2% retracement of the Apr 7 - May 20 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5078.00 Low Apr 30  

Trend signals in Eurostoxx 50 futures remain bearish, however, the recovery from the Jun 23 low appears to be a reversal and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its most recent gains. Price has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of both averages would strengthen a reversal theme. This would open 5486.00, the May 20 high and bull trigger. On the downside, a breach of 5194.00, the Jun 23 low, would reinstate a bearish theme.

Greece and the EU are still due to sell bills this week, while France, Spain, Belgium, and the ESM have already come to the market. We expect issuance to be E20.6bln in first round operations, up from E18.1bln last week. 

• This morning, Greece will look to issue E500mln of the new 13-week Oct 3, 2025 GTB.
• Finally today, the EU will look to come to the market with up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Oct 3, 2025 EU-bill, up to E1.0bln of the 6-month Jan 9, 2026 EU-bill and up to E1.5bln of the new 12-month Jul 3, 2026 EU-bill.