US TSYS: Bull Flatter With TY Eyeing Resistance
Jan-30 11:44
- Treasuries have bull flattened overnight, extending the post-Powell rally (MNI Fed Review here). Recent impetus comes from softer-than-expected European GDP data, with Treasuries underperforming sizeable rallies across EGBs.
- Fresh from the Fed yesterday, focus turns to US data with the national accounts Q4 advance release plus weekly jobless claims, the latter with continuing claims for a payrolls reference period.
- The ECB decision at 0815ET and presser 0845ET could offer some spillover risk but the decision itself is seen as a locked in 25bp cut.
- Cash yields are 1-3.5bp lower, with declines led by the long end.
- 2s10s sits at 29.7bp (-2.2bp), approaching month-to-date lows.
- TYH5 has recently set a session high of 109-10 (+ 11+) as it nears resistance. Cumulative volumes are limited at 265k.
- The corrective bull cycle is in play with a break of resistance at 109-11+/109-12 (50-day EMA/Jan 27 high) required to strengthen this condition. Clearance could open 109-31 (Dec 18 high).
- Data: GDP/PCE Q4 advance (0830ET), Jobless claims (0830ET), Pending home sales Dec (1000ET)
- Fedspeak: The final day of the FOMC blackout
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $95B 4W & $90B 8W bill auctions (1130ET)
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US TSYS: Yields Slip to 10D Lows Into Year End, Early Cash Close
Dec-31 11:39
- Treasuries added to Monday's rally overnight -- back near December 20 levels before drawing some sell interest in early London trade. Average to small year-end duration extensions: US +0.07Y, EU: +0.04Y, UK -.02Y (Bbg).
- The Mar'25 10Y contract trades 109-03 last (+4) vs. -06 high on modest year end volume of just over 135k. Tsy 10Y yield tapped 4.5027% low overnight, curves are looking modestly flatter: 2s10s .966 at 28.317, 5s30s -1.864 at 37.011.
- Projected rate cuts into early 2025 look steady to slightly higher vs. late Monday levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -14.6bp (-13.6bp), May'25 -21.3bp (-19.5bp), Jun'25 -30.8bp (-28.8bp).
- Today's economic data (prior, est) limited to FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.7%, 0.4%) and S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (0.18%, 0.20%) at 0900ET, followed by Dallas Fed Services Activity (9.8, --) at 1030ET.
- Reminder: early cash Tsy close at 1400ET, futures at normal time of 1600ET.
- For next week: the NYSE Group markets will close on January 9 in observance of the National Day of Mourning for President Carter (New York Stock Exchange, NYSE American Equities, NYSE American Options, NYSE Arca Equities, NYSE Arca Options, NYSE Chicago and NYSE National), while the CME Group has opted for early close, link HERE. FI open outcry will close at 1300ET, GLOBEX shortly after at 1315ET next Thursday.
EUROPEAN INFLATION: Irish HICP Accelerates in December, Core Also Higher
Dec-31 11:38
Irish HICP rose by 0.5pp to 1.0% Y/Y in December, its highest rate since August and the third consecutive acceleration. This comes as energy price deflation tapered off amid base effects, to -4.6% Y/Y vs -7.7% in November.
- The core rate (excl. energy and unprocessed food) meanwhile accelerated slightly this month, to 1.6% Y/Y vs 1.5% November.
- Food inflation stands unchanged at 1.7% Y/Y in December.
Looking more broadly at the December Eurozone inflation round, the prints released so far (Spain, Belgium, Portugal) generally underpin calls for energy-driven headline upticks this month. However, core rates also appear to have accelerated a bit so far - analysts were rather looking for a broadly unchanged print for the overall Eurozone.
- Heavy-weighted Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands, which are all scheduled to release their national-level prints next week, do not necessarily have to tilt in the same direction, however, and it might be that some acceleration for the countries which released so far was indeed expected - so the signal for the overall core print might not be clear for the time being.
EUR: FX Exchange traded Option
Dec-31 11:27
FX Exchange traded Option, looks like a new short term play, expiry Friday.
Thursday's Mfg PMIs are final reading, and US ISM Mfg on Friday is the only Data of real note.
- EURUSD (3rd Jan) 1.0575c, bought for 0.00030 in 1k.
