JGBS: Bull-Flattening Maintained Despite Weaker 30Y Auction
JGB futures are stronger, +27 compared to settlement levels, and near session bests despite today's ...
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 07-Jul | 0700 | DE | Industrial Production |
| 07-Jul | 0745 | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 09-Jul | 0700 | DE | Trade Balance |
| 09-Jul | --- | EU | ECB Lagarde & Cipollone at Eurogroup Meeting, Brussels |
| 10-Jul | 0700 | DE | Germany CPI (f) |
| 10-Jul | 0715 | EU | ECB Vujcic Panel at Greece Annual Economist Roundtable |
| 10-Jul | 0745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 10-Jul | 0900 | IT | Industrial Production |
| 13-Jul | 1745 | EU | ECB Schnabel Keynote and Panel, Munster |
| 14-Jul | 0700 | DE | Wholesale Prices |
| 15-Jul | 0800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 15-Jul | 1000 | EU | EZ Industrial Production |
| 16-Jul | 0900 | IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 16-Jul | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 17-Jul | 0900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 17-Jul | 1000 | EU | EZ HICP Final |
| 17-Jul | 1100 | EU | ECB Cipollone Lecture on Digital Euro |
BOBL TECHS: (U6) Corrective Phase
- RES 4: 116.000 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 115.947 1.236 proj of the May 19 - 29 - Jun 10 price swing
- RES 2: 115.610 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 29 - Jun 10 price swing
- RES 1: 115.390/115.560 High Jul 1 / High Jun 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 115.050 @ 05:56 BST Jul 7
- SUP 1: 114.940/700 Low Jun 23 / 22
- SUP 2: 114.646 Trendline support drawn from the May 19 low
- SUP 3: 114.180 Low Jun 10 and a key short-term support
- SUP 4: 113.840 Low May 20
A bullish theme in Bobl futures remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective - for now. Key resistance at 115.180, the May 29 and Jun 16 high, has recently been cleared. The clear breach of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started May 19, and opens 115.610 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support lies at 114.180, the May 10 and 11 low. Initial support is at 114.940, the Jun 23 low.
OIL: Crude Higher As Transit Through Hormuz Remains Dangerous
Oil prices are slightly higher today after reports that Iran had again attacked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz signalling that vessels remain vulnerable in the area. Markets will now be watching for a US response. WTI rose to a high of $69.32/bbl before easing and is currently up 0.7% to $69.01/bbl. Brent reached $72.75/bbl, not threatening initial resistance at $78.47, and is now up 0.7% to $72.50/bbl. The BBDXY USD index is flat.
- The UK navy reported that a tanker had been hit off the coast of Oman, which was likely a Qatari LNG vessel. It seems Iran fired at two ships with both materially damaged, according to Axios. Ships made unexplained U-turns away from the waterway on Saturday but traffic appeared to resume on Sunday.
- Ongoing Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the area are making talks with the US difficult but the ceasefire is holding. Negotiations are due to resume after Khamenei’s burial on 9 July but foreign minister Araghchi said today they won’t recommence if threats continue. Numerous sticking points remain including free transit through Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, sanctions and frozen assets.
- Saudi Arabia cut the price on Arab light shipped to Asia for August by $11/bbl resulting in a discount of $1.50 to the benchmark – the first time since 2020. This reflects rising global supply.
- Later the Fed’s Bowman speaks and BoE’s financial stability report is published. US 20 June ADP employment, June NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations, May trade, May German IP and June UK Halifax house prices are released.
