EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Reversal

• RES 4: 187.95 High Apr 17 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 187.56 High Apr 30
• RES 2: 186.56 76.4% retracement of the Apr 17 - May 6 bear leg  
• RES 1: 185.86/186.32 High Jun 30 / High Jun 16 and 17
• PRICE: 184.50 @ 15:10 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 183.17/183.17 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 24
• SUP 2: 182.05 Low May 06 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 181.87 Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 180.81 Low Feb 12 and a key M/T support  

The sharp sell-off in EURJPY from Tuesday’s high undermines recent bullish developments and instead highlights a potential bear threat. A continuation lower would expose support at 183.17, the Jun 24 low. Clearance of this level would pave the way for an extension towards 182.05, the May 6 low and a key support. The cross needs to trade above 185.86, the Jun 30 high, to reinstate a bull theme. 

• RES 4: 163.70 Top of a bull channel drawn from Feb 12 low 
• RES 3: 163.62 2.000 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 9 - Feb 12 price swing
• RES 2: 163.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 162.84 High Jul 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 161.26 @ 15:09 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 160.49 Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 160.48 Low Jun 18 
• SUP 3: 160.10 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 159.58 Low Jun 11 

The trend needle in USDJPY continues to point north and Thursday’s sharp pullback is considered corrective. This week’s break of 161.95, the Jul 3 ‘24 and Jun 25 major high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that MA studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 163.65, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 12 low. Key support to watch is 160.10, the 50-day EMA.  

In addition to the ISM Services report and FOMC Minutes already discussed, some other data releases include: 

• the full trade release for May after various large swings on both export and import sides of the ledger but with insufficient details in the advance release to fully pin them down (see more on that here).
• the NY Fed consumer survey including inflation expectations, a series that has been far less sensitive to energy price swings on the US-Iran war.
• existing home sales for June after pending sales showed a healthy bounce in May as they continued to recover from an all-time low in January.