USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends
Sep-25 14:21
* RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg * RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a k...
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STIR FUTURES: BLOCK: Mar'26 SOFR Buy
Aug-26 14:18
- +10,000 SFRH6 96.48 (+0.040), post time offer at 1013:07ET
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $500M BOC Aviation 5.5Y Launch, Ontario on Tap
Aug-26 14:15
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 08/26 $500M #BOC Aviation 5.5Y +58
- 08/26 $500M #Mitsui & Co 5Y +63
- 08/26 $500M JERA Co 5Y +115a
- 08/26 $Benchmark OCBC 10NC5 +115a
- 08/26 $Benchmark Ontario 5Y SOFR +54a
- 08/26 $Benchmark Sempra 30.5NC5.25 6.75%a
- 08/26 $Benchmark Bank Saudi Fransi 10NC5 +235a
- Expected Wednesday:
- 08/27 $2B ESM 2030 WNG +42a
US DATA: Labor Differential Continues To Imply Upward Pressure On U/E Rate
Aug-26 14:13
- Within the Conference Board consumer survey, the labor differential edged lower again to 9.7 in August after a marginally downward revised 11.0 (initially 11.3).
- It has declined for eight consecutive months now from a recent peak of 22.2 in December (and having averaged in 22 in 2024). 9.7 is the lowest since Feb 2021.
- It's also technically the largest drop in the differential since April.
- Jobs plentiful: little changed at 29.7 after a downward revised 29.9 (initial 30.2)
- Jobs hard to get: led the weakness in the differential with 20.0 after an unrevised 18.9 (initial 18.9). This is the highest perception of jobs being hard to get also since Feb 2021, with a recent low of 14.5% in January and a cycle low of 9.6% in Mar 2022.
- As we often point out, this shouldn’t be used for a month-to-month estimate of the unemployment rate but the downtrend in the differential clearly supports a trend increase in the unemployment rate – see charts below.
- The u/e rate at 4.25% in July may not be much higher than the 4.22% in July 2024, having seen a range of 4.0-4.25% since then, but the labor differential has shifted from 17% to 10% in that period.
