USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends
Sep-25 14:21
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 149.64 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bear leg
- RES 1: 149.48 High High Sep 3
- PRICE: 149.39 @ 15:21 BST Sep 25
- SUP 1: 147.37 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 146.77 Low Sep 18
- SUP 3: 145.49 Low Sep 17 and a pivot support
- SUP 4: 144.23 Low Jul 7
USDJPY is firmer as the pair extends the recovery since Sep 17. The move higher strengthens a bullish theme. A bullish candle pattern on Sep 17 - a hammer formation - provided an early reversal signal and remains valid. Furthermore, MA studies remain in a bull-mode condition, highlighting a dominant uptrend. 149.14, the Sep 3 high, has been cleared. Sights are on 149.64, a Fibonacci retracement. Pivot support is 145.49, the Sep 17 low.
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US DATA: Labor Differential Continues To Imply Upward Pressure On U/E Rate
Aug-26 14:13
- Within the Conference Board consumer survey, the labor differential edged lower again to 9.7 in August after a marginally downward revised 11.0 (initially 11.3).
- It has declined for eight consecutive months now from a recent peak of 22.2 in December (and having averaged in 22 in 2024). 9.7 is the lowest since Feb 2021.
- It's also technically the largest drop in the differential since April.
- Jobs plentiful: little changed at 29.7 after a downward revised 29.9 (initial 30.2)
- Jobs hard to get: led the weakness in the differential with 20.0 after an unrevised 18.9 (initial 18.9). This is the highest perception of jobs being hard to get also since Feb 2021, with a recent low of 14.5% in January and a cycle low of 9.6% in Mar 2022.
- As we often point out, this shouldn’t be used for a month-to-month estimate of the unemployment rate but the downtrend in the differential clearly supports a trend increase in the unemployment rate – see charts below.
- The u/e rate at 4.25% in July may not be much higher than the 4.22% in July 2024, having seen a range of 4.0-4.25% since then, but the labor differential has shifted from 17% to 10% in that period.
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