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SONIA markets little changed, with the recovery in the long end of core global FI markets unconvincing at this stage.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Dec-24 | 4.695 | -0.5 |
Feb-25 | 4.502 | -19.8 |
Mar-25 | 4.426 | -27.4 |
May-25 | 4.261 | -43.9 |
Jun-25 | 4.179 | -52.1 |
Aug-25 | 4.057 | -64.3 |
Sep-25 | 4.034 | -66.6 |
Nov-25 | 3.967 | -73.3 |
Dec-25 | 3.939 | -76.1 |
ECB-dated OIS price ~116bps of easing through the end of next year, corresponding to a deposit rate of just over 1.8%. That’s over 10bp more hawkish than before the ECB’s December decision, where rates were cut by 25bps and the bank’s pledge to keep policy “sufficiently restrictive” was removed.
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Cut-adjusted Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Jan-25 | 2.631 | -28.6 |
Mar-25 | 2.321 | -59.6 |
Apr-25 | 2.085 | -83.2 |
Jun-25 | 1.922 | -99.5 |
Jul-25 | 1.844 | -107.4 |
Sep-25 | 1.793 | -112.4 |
Oct-25 | 1.773 | -114.4 |
Dec-25 | 1.757 | -116.1 |
Source: MNI/Bloomberg. |
The S&P E-Minis contract remains bullish and the latest shallow pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for a continuation near-term. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. A resumption of the trend would open 6145.26, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 6097.76 the 20-day EMA.