EURGBP TECHS: Breaches Support

Spain, Belgium, the ESM, Greece and the EU are still due to sell bills this week, while France has already come to the market. We look for issuance of E22.4bln in first round operations, up from E19.1bln last week.

• This morning, Spain will look to sell a combined E5.5-6.5bln of the 6-month Mar 5, 2027 letras and the new 12-month Sep 10, 2027 letras.
• Belgium will then look to sell a combined E2.8-3.2bln of 3/6/11-month TCs: an indicative E1.0bln each of the Dec 10, 2026 TC, the Mar 11, 2027 TC and the Aug 12, 2027 TC.
• To conclude today's issuance the ESM will look to sell up to E1.6bln of its new 3-month Dec 4, 2026 bills.
• Tomorrow, Greece will look to sell E400mln of the new 52-week Sep 3, 2027 GTB.
• To conclude the week's bill issuance, also tomorrow, the EU will look to sell up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Dec 4, 2026 EU-bill, up to E1.5bln of the 6-month Mar 5, 2027 EU-bill and up to E2.0bln of the new 12-month Sep 3, 2027 EU-bill.

• RES 4: 1.3814 High Jan 30 
• RES 3: 1.3733 High Feb 4
• RES 2: 1.3696 76.4% retracement of the Jan 27 - Jun 24 bear cycle
• RES 1: 1.3603/76 High Aug 27 / 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3547 @ 06:29 BST Sep 01
• SUP 1: 1.3527 Low Aug 28  
• SUP 2: 1.3445 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3418 Low Aug 3  
• SUP 4: 1.3333 Low Jul 30

A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. The move down has resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA. The  next key support to watch is the area around the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.3478. A clear break of this average is required to strengthen a bear threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 1.3676, the Jun 21 high.

• RES 4: 114.660 High Jul 10   
• RES 3: 114.490 High Aug 5   
• RES 2: 114.105 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 113.480/113.791 Low Jul 23 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 113.430 @ 08:12 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 113.180 Intraday low      
• SUP 2: 113.028 1.236 proj of the Jun 30 - Jul 8 - 10 price swing 
• SUP 3: 113.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 112.836 1.382 proj of the Jun 30 - Jul 8 - 10 price swing

Recent gains in Bobl futures have been corrective. A fresh cycle low this week reinforces the current bearish theme and confirms a continuation of the downtrend. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position. This highlights a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 113.028, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA, currently at 114.138.