UK DATA: BRC Footfall Sees Sharp December Decline, Weak End To 2025
UK footfall decreased a sharp 2.9% Y/Y in December, down from -0.8% in November - leaving the "golden quarter" (Q4) for retail at a significant 2.2% Y/Y footfall drop. This marks the eighth straight month of decline, with the BRC highlighting rising living costs potentially causing consumers to hold off for post-Christmas sales.
- Though we would caution against reading too much into the data as the proportion of online purchases can vary (especially around sales events), the release paints an, at best, subdued picture for the retail sector to end 2025.
- This release covers 30 Nov 2025 - 3 Jan 2026, the same five weeks as the upcoming BRC retail sales (13 Jan) and the ONS's retail sales data (23 Jan). It therefore includes the Sunday following Black Friday, and Cyber Monday, as well as the majority of the holiday season.
- We note that last year's reporting period began on 24 Nov, thus including Black Friday, which could have created an unfavourable base effect for December. Still, taking the last two months' poor data together, footfall is considerably weaker than last year.
- Footfall fell again in all three major location categories: shopping centres down 5.1% Y/Y (vs -1.3% Nov), retail parks down 2.5% Y/Y (vs -0.4% Nov), and high street down 0.9% Y/Y (though up from -1.2% Nov).
- "In the face of rising bills and food costs, many consumers held off for post-Christmas sales, with the week after Christmas the only one to see a significant uplift. Shoppers were also browsing less in the lead up to Christmas, making fewer, but more targeted shopping trips", writes the BRC.
Chart source: BRC-Sensormatic Footfall Monitor
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AUSSIE BONDS: ACGB Dec-30 Supply Faces A Sharply Higher Yield
The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) will today sell A$1000mn of the 1.00% 21 December 2030 bond. Today’s auction is likely to be shaped by several key factors:
- The current yield is a massive 80-85bps higher than the previous auction and sits only 10bps below the November 2024 high of 4.43%.
- The 3/5-year yield curve is around the same level as last time, 15-20bps below recent highs.
- Exclusion of the line from the YM or XM baskets may limit demand.
- Moreover, investor sentiment toward global bonds has weakened recently.
- Then comes the market about face with respect to the RBA rates outlook. After yesterday’s hawkish press conference from RBA Governor Bullock, RBA-dated OIS pricing shows the probability of a 25bp hike rising from 36% for February to 101% by May and 196% by November 2026.
- While firm pricing is expected at the auction, these headwinds may limit the overall strength of demand.
- Results are due at 0000 GMT / 1100 AEST.
JGB TECHS: (Z5) Just Off Cycle Lows
- RES 3: 140.08 - High Jun 13
- RES 2: 139.05 - High Aug 4
- RES 1: 137.30 - High Sep 8 and key short-term resistance
- PRICE: 134.11 @ 16:22 GMT Dec 09
- SUP 1: 133.74 - Low Dec 08
- SUP 2: 133.12 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 132.94 - 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
Prices traded to new pullback and cycle lows again Monday, weighed by building expectations of a December BoJ rate hike and a breach of support in futures prices. This affirms the firm downtrend that’s dominated prices since mid-September, and prices will need to challenge resistance before signaling any broader reversal.
