EM LATAM CREDIT: BRAZIL TREASURY SECRETARY CERON SPEAKS AT PRESS CONFERENCE

Tsy Sec Bessent said at the White House press briefing this morning: "We have 18 important trading relationships. We will be speaking to all of those partners, or at least 17 of them." The 18th, he confirmed later, is China. 

• Asked about whether the administration is talking with China specifically about tariffs or not, Bessent said: "We're not going to talk about who's talking to whom but I think that, you know, over time, we will see that the Chinese tariffs are unsustainable for China." Asked why the Chinese say they're not talking to the US on trade, Bessent again doesn't answer directly, but says: "They have a different form of government. They're playing to a different audience. So I'm not going to get into the nitty gritty again of who is talking to whom."
• And his comments also implied a full US - EU deal is not close. Regarding the EU, Bessent said "we're negotiating with a lot of different interests. Some of the European countries have put on an unfair digital service tax on our big internet provider, France and Italy, other countries, Germany and Poland, don't have that. So we want to see that unfair tax of one of America's great industries removed. So it's going to be a give and take. So they have some internal matters to decide before they can engage in an external negotiation."
• Bessent made a point about the potential trade deal with India which may be announced imminently, per multiple reports. He says, "In India, in a funny way, is easier to negotiate with the many other countries because they have very high tariffs and lots of tariffs. So it's much easier to confront the direct tariffs when, as we go through these unfair trade deals that have been put in over decades, that the non tariff trade barriers can be much more insidious and also harder to detect. So a country like India, which has the posted and ready tariffs, it's much easier to negotiate with them, so I think the Indian negotiations are moving well."
• Note the contrast with the EU, and potentially other trading partners, for which deals are likely to be far more complex due to extensive non-tariff barriers as perceived by the US.
• EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Dombrovskis met with Bessent last week and reportedly (per media outlet LETA)  told the Treasury secretary that the EU would prefer a deal on tariffs before the 90-day tariff "pause" window was over. A tentative agreement is of course very possible, but by the same token, Bessent doesn't appear to be suggesting that it is close.
• PBS journalist Lisa Desjardins on X.com noted later Tuesday that the US Trade Representative suggested Europe is "not engaging as well" as some other countries: "NEW. US Trade Rep Greer told GOP senators that countries are coming to the table on tariff talks, but Europe is not engaging as well. Per @SenMullin he said “Madagascar knows what we want, Cambodia and Vietnam know what we want - we are clear”. But Europe not getting it."

The average Regional Fed prices paid indices rose to fresh 25-month highs in April, representing levels historically consistent with ISM Services Prices Paid in the low/mid 60s (was 60.9 in March, after 62.6 in February). There is no consensus yet but we would be unsurprised to see an uptick in the ISM gauge, which is released on Monday.

• This reflected upticks in the Philadelphia and Dallas indices, with the NY Fed's dipping slightly (not included is the Richmond Fed's which uses a different methodology for prices, and also saw a pullback from elevated Feb/Mar readings).
• Note that expectations for future prices continue to rise though this isn't reflected in the ISM gauge.

• RES 4: 147.05 50-day EMA   
• RES 3: 146.54 Low Mar 11  
• RES 2: 144.24 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 144.03 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 142.18 @ 16:23 BST Apr 29
• SUP 1: 141.49 Low Apr 23   
• SUP 2: 139.79 1.382 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 3: 138.82 1.500 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
• SUP 4: 138.07  Low Jul 28 ‘23

The recovery that started Apr 22 in USDJPY is considered corrective. Resistance to watch is 144.24, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at 147.05. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79 next, a Fibonacci projection.