EMISSIONS: BNEF Sees Limited Impact from Brazil’s Carbon Coalition At Cop30

10,000 TYZ5 114.5 calls, 22 ref 113-15, total volume over 23,500

Both legs crossed on offer at 1053:15ET:

• 6,000 SFRH6 96.61
• 6,000 SFRM6 96.84

Underlying Dec'25 10Y futures creeping higher (TYZ5 113-15, +2) 10Y yield -.0250 at 4.0071%. November options expire on Friday, October 24 - the week before the next FOMC rate announcement on Wednesday, October 29. What's the point? 

• Possibly covering shorts well ahead of the policy announcement, or a near-term cover vs. short Dec positions, or hedging a perceived kink in the vol surface. A speculative alternative: a short term play ahead of the meeting where underlying continues to creep higher - as they did going into the Sep FOMC, only to retreat after the rate cut -- presents a short window of opportunity to unwind or roll before expiring. Recent trade:
  • over 9,000 TYX5 114.5 calls, 4 ref 104-14 to -14.5, total volume over 12,600
  • 5,000 TYX5 113/113.5/114 2x1x1 call trees, 45 ref 113-14