EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present

• Looking first glance at the public finance data, August PSNBex missed consensus expectations by about GBP 3bln.
• There were also upward revisions to PSNBex in the fiscal year to July from GBP56.7bln to GBP59.0bln.
• This overall leaves PSNBex in the fiscal year to August at GBP77.3bln and this is now GBP8.1bln higher than the OBR forecast (versus GBP2.3bln higher than forecast in the pre-revision fiscal year to July).
• We are looking into the details now, but at first glance this is disappointing for the government. However, we aren't sure on how much of the numbers in here will have reached the OBR before their cut-off to be included in their pre-policy forecasts.

• RES 4: $116.68 - 2.000 proj of the Jul 2 - 23 - Aug 5 price swing
• RES 3: $113.13 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr - Jul bear leg (cont) 
• RES 2: $111.97 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 2 - 23 - Aug 5 price swing
• RES 1: $109.97 - High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $101.88 @ 06:58 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: $99.21 - 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: $92.61 - 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: $76.78 - Low Aug 5 and a key support
• SUP 4: $70.67 - Low Jul 2 and a bear trigger

A bull cycle in Brent futures remains intact and - for now - the latest pullback is considered corrective. Initial support to watch lies at $99.21, the 20-day EMA. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it is required to suggest scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, the recent breach of the $100.00 handle strengthens the bull trend. Scope is seen for an  extension towards $111.97 next, a Fibonacci projection.

• RES 4: 160.39 High Sep 2
• RES 3: 158.44 50.0% retracement of the Jul 23 - Sep 8 bear leg 
• RES 2: 158.10 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 158.05 High Sep 18
• PRICE: 157.51 @ 07:02 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 154.86/152.89 Low Sep 16 / 8 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 152.10 Low Jan 27
• SUP 3: 151.94 50% retracement of the Apr 22 ‘25 - Jul 23 bull leg
• SUP 4: 151.63 1.00 projection of Jul 23 - Aug 3 - Sep 2 price swing 

A bull cycle that started Sep 8 in USDJPY remains in play for now and price is trading at its recent highs. The pair has also cleared the 20-day EMA, at 156.59. This signals scope for a stronger near-term recovery and attention is on resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 158.10. Clearance of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the key support at 152.89, the Sep 8 low.