EURJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 186.05 Low Jul 28
• RES 3: 185.56 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 184.58 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 183.99 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 183.76 @ 18:14 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 181.33/179.37 Low Aug 7 / 3 and key support 
• SUP 2: 178.82 High Oct 30 2025
• SUP 3: 177.15 Low Nov 10 2025 
• SUP 4: 175.29 38.2% retracement of the Feb 28 ‘25 - Apr 17 bull leg

EURJPY continues to retrace the sharp sell-off between the Jul 29 - Aug 3 period. For now, gains are considered corrective. The next resistance points to monitor are 183.99, the 20-day EMA, and 184.58, the 50-day EMA. A clear break through this resistance zone would strengthen the current bounce. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on 179.37, the Aug 3 low and key short-term support. 

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 08/12 $2B #Haleon US $600M 3Y +48, $600M 5Y +60, $800M 10Y +80
• 08/12 $1.75B #Wells Fargo PerpNC5 6.55%
• 08/12 $1B *Alexandria Real Estate 30.5NC5.25 7.25%
• 08/12 $1B #Public Service of Oklahoma $450M 7Y +90, $550M 30Y +112
• Expected Thursday:
• 08/13 $2.25B Zenith Arc LLC 5NC2

SOFR & Treasury options trade outlined below: Decent volumes leaning toward upside calls, call spreads, put unwinds and vol structure sales. Underlying futures bounced off lows early London hours on wires reporting US/Iran ceasefire extension - later denied by Iran. Curves twist steeper with bonds retreating late. Projected rate hike pricing retreats from late Tuesday levels (*) - but bounces off midday lows while December holds onto a 25bp hike: Sep'26 at +10bp (+12.8bp), Oct'26 at 16.1bp (19.1bp), Dec'26 27.3bp (+29.6bp), Jan'27 31.1bp (33.9bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • -5,000 SFRZ6 95.50/95.75 put spds 1.0 over 95.87/96.00/96.06/96.18 put condor ref 96.04
  • +20,000 SFRH7 96.00/96.25/96.43 call flys vs 95.25 puts, 0.0 net ref 95.95
  • +80,000 2QZ6 96.25/96.50 call spds v 2QU6 96.50 calls, 3.25 net/Dec over
  • +10,000 SFRU6 96.18/96.25/96.31/96.37 call condor .75 over 96.12 put
  • +4,000 SFRV6 96.12/96.25/96.31 call trees,  2.5 ref 96.04
  • +5,000 SFRX6 96.18/96.37 call spds 4.5 ref 96.04
  • -5,000 SFRZ6 95.43/95.56/96.06/96.18 put condors 5.75 ref 96.045
  • -10,000 SFRU6 96.25/96.31 call spds, 1.25 ref 96.20
  • -4,000 0QM7 94.75/95.75 put spds, 18.0 vs. 96.01/0.26%
  • +5,000 SFRU6 96.25 calls, 2.5 ref 96.20
  • +2,000 SFRZ6 96.12/96.25/96.37/96.50 call condors, 5.0 ref 96.055
  • -8,000 SFRU6 95.87/96.00 put spds, cab ref 96.20
  • -2,500 SFRZ6 96.00/96.37 strangle, 16.5 ref 96.045
  • -5,000 SFRU6 95.93/96.00/96.12/96.18 put condors, 1.75 ref 96.185
  • +10,000 SFRZ6 96.25/96.31 call spds, 2.37 ref 96.025
  • -2,500 SFRU6 96.06/96.12 put spds, 1.75 ref 96.18
  • Block, 2,500 SFRQ6 96.12 puts, 1.25
  • 12,200 SFRU6 96.12/96.25 call spd vs. 0QU6 95.93/96.18 call spd spd
  • 3,000 SFRU6 95.93/96.00/96.12/96.18 put condors
  • 7,000 SFRU6 95.93/96.00 put spds
  • 5,000 SFRZ6 96.25/96.31 call spds ref 96.02
  • 2,250 SFRV6 96.25 calls ref 96.02
  • 1,900 SFRQ6 96.18 calls, 2.5 ref 96.175
• Treasury Options:
  • 3,500 TYU6 106.25/107 2x1 put spds
  • -8,000 TYV6 107/109.5 strangles, 35
  • 10,900 TYU6 107.5 puts, 3 ref 108-20
  • 4,000 USU6 110 calls, 20 ref 109-12
  • 3,000 wk2 TY 108.5/108.75 call spds ref 108-23
  • over 6,500 FVU6 106.25 puts, 7 ref 106-15.25
  • 9,000 TUU6 102.87 puts, 2.5 ref 103-00.75
  • 3,000 wk2 TY 108.25/108.5 put spds ref 108-19
  • appr 15,000 wk2 TY 109/109.25 call spds (exp 8/14)
  • 2,500 Wednesday wkly TY 107.75/108/108.25/108.5 put condors (exp today)
  • Block, 3,500 TUU6 103.25 calls, 1 vs. 102-28.88/0.15%
  • 3,200 wk2 TY 106.75 puts ref 108-17
  • over 41,000 TYU6 106/107 put spds ref 108-17 to -16.5
  • 4,000 TUV6 102.38/102.5/102.62/102.75 put condors ref 102-27.25
  • 9,900 TUV6 102.25/102.5/102.62/102.75 put condors ref 102-27.12
  • 2,000 UXYV6 112 calls ref 109-31.5
  • over 13,800 TYU6 108 puts, 11-12 ref 108-15.5