USDCAD TECHS: Bear Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 1.3965/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
- RES 1: 1.3866 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3769 @ 15:39 BST May 30
- SUP 1: 1.3686 Low May 26
- SUP 2: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
- SUP 3: 1.3579 1.500 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
A downtrend in USDCAD remains intact, with Friday’s losses playing into the theme. This leaves short-term gains to be considered corrective. Initial resistance to watch is 1.3866, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 1.3965 - a key level. The pair has recently breached support at 1.3751, the May 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and has maintained the sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.3643 next, the Oct 9 2024 low.
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EQUITIES: Strong Late Rally Puts S&P Futures Close To Key Resistance
S&P futures have rallied 1.2% in the last 15 minutes or so - no headlines we have seen to trigger but that brings cash S&P green for the day, with ES1 the highest level since April 2 ("Liberation Day") and up an impressive 2.8% from the session's low. We continue to look for any potential trigger.
- At a 5606.75 high in the last few minutes, the next key resistance per our tech analyst is 5618.25, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would strengthen a bull theme.
LOOK AHEAD: Thursday Data Calendar: Weekly Claims, S&P Mfg PMI Final, ISMs
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 1-May 0730 Challenger Job Cuts YoY (204.8%, --)
- 1-May 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (222k, 224k)
- 1-May 0830 Continuing Claims (1.841M, 1.865M)
- 1-May 0945 S&P Global US Mfg PMI Final (50.7, 50.5)
- 1-May 1000 Construction Spending MoM (0.7%, 0.2%)
- 1-May 1000 ISM Manufacturing (49.0, 48.0)
- 1-May 1000 ISM Prices Paid (69.4, 73.0)
- 1-May 1000 ISM New Orders (45.2, --)
- 1-May 1000 ISM Employment (44.7, 45.0)
- 1-May 1130 US Tsy $85B 4W, $75B 8W bill auctions
US DATA: Pending Home Sales Rebound, But Recovery Looks Short-Lived
Pending home sales saw their biggest monthly rise in 26 months in March, halting a recent softening. The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index - which is based on contract signings - rose 6.1% M/M on a seasonally-adjusted basis (vs 1.0% expected, 2.1% prior) after plumbing historic lows in the last couple of months.
- The Y/Y figure was still negative (-0.1%) but far better than expected (-5.7% survey; -7.0% prior).
- Sales picked up in each of the four US regions, with the exception of the Northeast - the South (the largest region for pending sales) led the way with 9.8% M/M growth.
- As a leading indicator for existing home sales, this suggests that downside in residential sales activity may be limited for now.
- Though the basis of comparison is relatively weak, as sales levels are around 30% below pre-Covid and 25% below those seen in the year 2001.
- And the pickup appears to be led by an improvement in mortgage rates, which looks to have reversed in April. Per the NAR: "Home buyers are acutely sensitive to even minor fluctuations in mortgage rates," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "While contract signings are not a guarantee of eventual closings, the solid rise in pending home sales implies a sizable build-up of potential home buyers, fueled by ongoing job growth."
