PERU: BCRP Cuts By 25bp To 4.50%, Further Easing Seen Ahead
- The BCRP unexpectedly cut its reference rate by 25bp to 4.50% last night, after three consecutive holds. While a slender majority of analysts had expected a continued pause, a significant minority had anticipated the cut. With this move, the Board said that the policy rate is approaching a neutral level, although the accompanying policy statement struck a dovish tone, keeping the door open to further easing ahead, dependent on the incoming data.
- In the statement, the committee highlighted the deterioration in the external backdrop due to the high uncertainty stemming from restrictive tariff measures, with risks to global growth now skewed to the downside. On the domestic front, it noted the “slight deterioration” in economic activity since the previous meeting, although most indicators are still in “optimistic territory” as activity remains “around its potential level”. Meanwhile, headline inflation is still expected to return close to the 2% target in the coming months, with core inflation remaining around 2% ahead.
- Overall, the committee reiterates that future rate adjustments will depend on new information about inflation, particularly core inflation, inflation expectations and economic activity. Analysts continue to see room for at least one further cut ahead, and potentially much more through H2, amid mounting global growth concerns. The next MPC meeting is on June 10.
- Link to BCRP policy statement here.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
BUNDS: Trading back at pre Cash Open level
- The German Bund is now back above where it was trading at on the Cash Open, when it fell a quick big 115 ticks, as Govies caught up with some of the big moves seen Overnight in Treasuries.
- Bund was trading at 130.25 pre Cash Open.
- The earlier bid in Risk has ran out of steam, and the selling looked to be Cash led in European Equities, although nothing big in terms of moves.
- US Tnotes has already seen over 1.2mln traded lots for this time of the Day, but the contract has stayed in a fairly tight range since the EU Open.
- Since Bund is up 36 ticks and US Tnotes is down 19.5 ticks, the Tnotes/Bund spread widens another 9bps and look to test the 175bps resistance right here.
COMMODITIES: Gold Moves Affirm Bullish Case
The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the latest pull back appears corrective. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact following the recent impulsive sell-off and the contract has again traded to a fresh cycle low, today. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels.
- WTI Crude down $2.07 or -3.47% at $57.53
- Natural Gas up $0.02 or +0.63% at $3.488
- Gold spot up $60.21 or +2.02% at $3046.08
- Copper up $1 or +0.24% at $415.75
- Silver up $0.45 or +1.5% at $30.2371
- Platinum up $0.5 or +0.05% at $922.51
EQUITIES: S&P 500 Remains on Cusp of Bear Market
A bearish theme in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the cross is approaching its recent lows. Scope is seen for an extension towards the 4800.00 handle next. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in a bear cycle following the latest impulsive sell-off and the contract is trading just above its recent lows. Monday’s move down resulted in a breach of a key support at 4699.00, the Nov 19 ‘24 low (cont).
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 1298.55 pts or -3.93% at 31714.03 and the TOPIX ended 82.69 pts lower or -3.4% at 2349.33.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 41.261 pts or +1.31% at 3186.81 and the HANG SENG ended 136.81 pts higher or +0.68% at 20264.49.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 668.21 pts or -3.29% at 19612.07, FTSE 100 lower by 235.89 pts or -2.98% at 7675.61, CAC 40 down 210.44 pts or -2.96% at 6889.46 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 145.38 pts or -3.05% at 4628.29.
- Dow Jones mini down 265 pts or -0.7% at 37601, S&P 500 mini down 6.25 pts or -0.12% at 5012, NASDAQ mini up 47 pts or +0.27% at 17285.25.
