EU CONSUMER STAPLES: Barry Callebaut; CEO interview
Sep-18 10:26
(BARY; Baa3 Neg/BBB- Neg/NR) CEO in NZZ (full here: https://tinyurl.com/3hkzatv4) * On activist in...
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BUNDS: Buxl leads the recovery off the Lows in Bonds
Aug-19 10:25
- The German Bund is back at the 129.00 Figure, the 2.80% Yield resistance has again held today, printed a 2.784% high.
- The German 30yr Buxl is the contract that has led Bonds, the Yield traded to its highest level since July 2011 earlier, and the Futures has bounced off the 113.00 level since.
- There's been some interest in fading the 5s/30s away from the 103.00 level, printed a 102.99 high, but settling down to 102.10 now.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: House Starts/Permits, Fed VC Bowman
Aug-19 10:21
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 08/19 0830 Housing Starts (1.321M, 1.297M), MoM (4.6%, -1.8%)
- 08/19 0830 Building Permits (1.393M, 1.386M), MoM (-0.1%, -0.5%)
- 08/19 1000 Fed VC Bowman interview on Bbg TV
- 08/19 1130 US Tsy $85B 6W bill auction
- 08/19 1410 Fed VC Bowman blockchain symposium, WY
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
SEK: Options Markets Not Priced For Significant RB Moves; We See Dovish Risks
Aug-19 10:21
Options markets aren’t priced for significant SEK FX moves following tomorrow’s Riksbank decision, where a hold at 2.00% is unanimously expected. Overnight ATM EURSEK vols are up 1 point to 6.9 points, in line with the 200-day moving average and below prevailing levels seen ahead of the last three Riksbank decisions. That means an overnight ATM straddle expiring at tomorrow’s NY cut requires just a 0.3% swing in either direction to breakeven (prices according to Bloomberg Finance L.P. data).
- Of course, much of this implied vol compression reflects the broader pullback in G10 FX realised vol since April.
- We view the risks to tomorrow decision as tilted in a dovish direction. The Riksbank may indicate that it views the summer inflation uptick as temporary, and re-iterate guidance for more easing later this year. This may increase market expectations for a September cut, which is currently viewed as a close call between that and a hold.
- For EURSEK, a dovish reaction would see the cross move back into its contained early/mid-August range and cancel a developing bearish threat. The cross has pierced support at the 50-day EMA (11.1403) this morning, with the krona supported by the 0.7% rally in European equity futures. This EMA had contained downside in EURSEK since mid-June.
- MNI’s full Riksbank preview is here.
