EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Bank Polska Kasa Opieke: Banning sale of state held shares

The German flash June services PMI more than unwound May's fall, exceeding consensus at 49.4 (vs 47.8 cons, 47.1 in May, 49.0 in April). The manufacturing PMI was in line with expectations at 49.0, up from 48.3 prior for the strongest reading in 34 months. That helped the composite reading return to (slightly) expansionary territory at 50.4 (vs 48.5 prior).

• Details of the report highlight improved demand amongst manufacturers, but this did not stop overall manufacturing employment from falling. Meanwhile, services business confidence dipped in June. As such, the details of the report still display some signs of softness for Europe's largest economy, despite the stronger-than-expected headline readings.
• Little lasting reaction in Bund futures to the release, still -24 ticks today at 130.69.

Key notes from the release:

• "Underlying demand conditions showed signs of strengthening at the end of the second quarter, as underscored by the first rise in total inflows of new work across the private sector since May last year"...". The increase was driven by the manufacturing sector".
• "Goods producers reported a solid uptick in business from abroad, whilst there were also several mentions from surveyed firms of stronger domestic demand".
• "A lack of pressure on operating capacity in the goods-producing sector was reflected in further factory job cuts in June"...". Services workforce numbers rose modestly and slightly more so than they had done in May, but that was insufficient to prevent a thirteenth straight monthly decline in overall employment".
• "Turning to prices, June’s flash survey results indicated an uptick in the rate of output charge inflation. This was underpinned by slightly stronger price increases across services, with average factory gate charges falling for the second month running and to the greatest extent since February".
• "Preliminary data for June showed a slight reduction in businesses’ optimism towards growth prospects in the next 12 months. Confidence slipped just below the long-run average due to a dip in service sector expectations".

• MNI: GERMANY JUNE FLASH MANUF PMI 49.0 (49.0 F'CAST, 48.3 MAY)
• MNI: GERMANY JUNE FLASH SERVICES PMI 49.4 (47.9 F'CAST, 47.1 MAY)

• RES 4: $39.026 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing 
• RES 3: $38.246 - 1.236 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 price swing
• RES 2: $38.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $37.317 - High Jun 18  
• PRICE: $36.109 @ 08:26 BST Jun 23 
• SUP 1: $35.487 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $34.242/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
• SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24  

A bull wave in Silver remains in play and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. The metal has recently traded through a resistance at $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The clear break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on the $38.00 handle next. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $35.487, the 20-day EMA.