BNM: Bank Negara Malaysia Keeps Key Rate Unchanged
Jan-22 07:03
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) keeps its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) on hold at 3.00% again, in line with a unanimous Bloomberg consensus call and our Asia-Pacific desk's forecast.
- "For the Malaysian economy, the overall growth for 2024 was within expectations. Moving forward, the strength in economic activity is expected to be sustained in 2025, driven by resilient domestic expenditure."
- "The growth outlook is subject to downside risks from an economic slowdown in major trading partners amid heightened risk of trade and investment restrictions, and lower-than-expected commodity production."
- "Meanwhile, growth could potentially be higher from greater spillover from the tech upcycle, more robust tourism activity, and faster implementation of investment projects."
- "Going into 2025, inflation is expected to remain manageable, amid the easing global cost conditions and the absence of excessive domestic demand pressures."
- "Upside risk to inflation would be dependent on the extent of spillover effects of domestic policy measures, as well as global commodity prices and financial market developments."
- "At the current OPR level, the monetary policy stance remains supportive of the economy and is consistent with the current assessment of inflation and growth prospects."
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MNI: UK Q3 GDP +0% Q/Q, +0.9% Y/Y
Dec-23 07:00
- MNI: UK Q3 GDP +0% Q/Q, +0.9% Y/Y
GILT TECHS: (H5) Impulsive Bear Cycle Is Intact
Dec-23 06:53
- RES 4: 94.32 20-day EMA
- RES 3: 93.64 High Dec 17
- RES 2: 93.38 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 93.09 High Dec 21
- PRICE: 92.93 @ Close Dec 20
- SUP 1: 91.87 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 91.73 4.236 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 3: 91.58 4.382 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 4: 91.45 4.500 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move down has resulted in a breach of key short-term support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. The break of this level highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 91.73, a 4.236 projection of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing. Initial firm resistance is at 93.64, the Dec 17 high. Short-term gains are considered corrective.
UK DATA: Q3 GDP Second Estimate and Balance of Payments Data Due 07:00GMT
Dec-23 06:50
- The final estimate of Q3 GDP on a quarterly and annual basis is due, the first estimate came in at 0.1%, a tenth below the BOE's forecast of 0.2% Q/Q growth (following 0.5% growth in Q2).
- The monthly readings for July, August and September (released alongside the first quarterly estimate) were 0.0%M/M, 0.2%M/M and -0.1%M/M. They were not open to revision alongside the release of October's first estimate (which came in at +0.1%M/M).
- The BOE has downgraded its forecast for Q4 GDP to flat growth (vs 0.3% forecast in November MPC meeting). Alongside the October monthly print, the PMI data points to a further weakening in GDP with the December flash composite PMI down 2.1 points compared to September PMI (albeit remaining marginally above the 50 level threshold).
- For the balance of payments, the focus will be on the current account deficit which is forecast at GBP23.0bln in Q3 according to the Bloomberg consensus, following a deficit of GBP28.4bln in Q2 - the largest quarterly deficit since Q1 2022. Analyst estimates range from GBP19.2bln to GBP26.0bln.
- From the monthly GDP publication on 13 December, absent any revisions net trade recorded a deficit of GBP10.6bln (vs a deficit of GBP15.9bln in Q2).
- Both the Primary and Secondary Accounts are expected to continue to contribute negatively to the current account. These subcomponents combined point to another current account deficit although an improvement to Q2 where net trade deteriorated to the worse levels seen since Q2 2022.
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