EM ASIA CREDIT: Bangkok Bank: Affirmed by Fitch

TYM5 is trading 109-25+, down 0-09 from its close.

• No Cash today
• Bloomberg - “Speaking to Fox News, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says that President Donald Trump "believes EU proposals [on trade and tariffs] have not been of good quality". Says the Trump move to impose 50% tariffs on the EU is in response to the Union's slow pace in talks. Bessent: "We hope this lights a fire under the EU....the EU has a collective action problem.”
• (Bloomberg) -- “Asset managers aggressively de-leveraged in the week ending May 20, CFTC data show, cutting net long positioning across most Treasury futures. In the long-end of the curve, hedge funds added a large amount to net short in ultra-long bond futures over the week.”
• The 10-year found sellers back towards 4.45% on Friday night and then moved higher to close back above 4.50%. Dips look likely to see supply in the short-term, should yields hold above 4.40% the target looks to be the 4.75% area. Watch for any announcements relating to the SLR, this could cause a knee jerk to a market that is already quite short.

Gold prices trended higher over Friday to finish up 1.9% to $3357.51/oz off the intraday high of $3365.94. They were supported by safe-haven flows following US President Trump’s threat to impose 50% tariffs on imports from the EU. Bullion has started today’s trading 0.4% lower at $3344.40 after EC President von der Leyen and Trump spoke and agreed to stick with the July 9 deadline before imposing duties to have time to negotiate a trade agreement.

• Gold was up almost 5% last week with the peak reached on Friday. It is now 1.7% higher in May. Medium-term signals remain bullish with moving average studies in a bull-mode position.
• Prices broke above initial resistance at $3347.50, 9 May high, on Friday but are currently slightly below this level. A clear break would open $3465.6, 7 May high. The bull trigger is at $3500.1. Initial support is at $3267.9, 20-day EMA.
• Bullion is likely to continue to find support from the US given ongoing trade negotiations and concerns over the fiscal position after the House passed the tax bill which now faces the Senate. Global relations also remain fraught especially in the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine.
• The US and UK are closed today for holidays. 

USD/CNH tracks near 7.1750 in early Monday dealings. The pair reached the low 7.1700 region in Friday US trade, as broader USD sentiment faltered post fresh Trump tariff threats targeting the EU. Headlines have crossed this morning that Trump will extend the tariff deadline to July 9 for the EU (which were originally going to go into effect on June 1), which has seen US equity futures rise. The reaction in CNH has been modest though. Spot USD/CNY finished up Friday trade at 7.1810, while the CNY CFETS basket tracker edged slightly higher to 96.20, but was still down for last week. 

• Friday's move in USD/CNH to fresh YTD lows keeps focus in the pair firmly on the downside. We saw Nov 7-8 lows from last year with a 7.1400 handle. Sub that is the 7.1000 region, with early Nov 2024 the last time we were sub this level. On the topside, the 20-day EMA resistance point is trending down, last near 7.2200.
• The China to world equity ration is up from recent lows but still sub May to date highs. The CSI 300 ended Friday trade down 0.81%, while in US trade the Golden Dragon index was flat. Concerns around US trade/fiscal policy may continue to benefit China and other major markets in the near term.
• It's a quiet week data wise, with the April industrial profits print out tomorrow, then this Saturday we get the May PMI prints. The Citi CNY data surprise index sits just off cycle highs. Fiscal policy has ramped up to boost growth amid the tariff threat. The market consensus if for a slight uptick in the May official PMIs.