EGB SYNDICATION: Austria triple-tranche mandate

Oct-18 10:35

"The REPUBLIC OF AUSTRIA has mandated Barclays, BofA Securities, Citi, Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE, J.P. Morgan and Raiffeisen Bank International to lead manage its new Reg S/144a eligible triple-tranche EUR issue consisting of a new 7yr Benchmark maturing 20 October 2030, a tap of the RAGB 0.250% 10/20/2036 and a €1bn (no-grow) tap of the Green RAGB 1.850% 05/23/2049. The transaction is expected to be launched and priced in the near future, subject to market conditions."

  • MNI expect the transaction to take place tomorrow.
  • This will be the third Austrian syndication of 2023 (following a single-tranche 10-year in January and a dual tranche 6-year Green / 30-year in April).
  • Austria has only held a triple tranche syndication once before - in January 2022.
  • We pencil in a total transaction size of E3.5-5.0bln across the three issues.

Historical bullets

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Put fly seller

Sep-18 10:32

ERU4 96.37/96.25/96.12p fly sold at 0.75 in 9.5k

OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Bulls Remain In The Driver's Seat

Sep-18 10:32
  • In FX, EURUSD conditions remain bearish and the pair traded lower last week, breaching 1.0686, the Sep 7 low. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting the market's current sentiment. Sights are on 1.0611,38.2% retracement Sep’22 - Jul’23 upleg. Initial firm resistance is 1.0786, the 20-day EMA.
  • The trend needle in GBPUSD continues to point south and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low last week. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is 1.2369 next, the Jun 5 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2548, the Sep 11 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
  • The USDJPY trend needle continues to point north and last week’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The focus is on a climb towards 148.40 next, the Nov 4 2022 high. Moving average studies remain in bull mode position, highlighting the market's positive sentiment. On the downside, 144.45 represents key short-term support, the Sep 1 low. Initial firm support lies at 145.91, the Sep 11 low.

STIR: Less Than 90bps of Fed Cuts Priced For 2024

Sep-18 10:26
  • The Fed Funds implied terminal rate has unwound Friday’s hit from softer than expected U.Mich consumer inflation expectations and sentiment, lifting back to 5.45% for December. Continued increases further out mean that the market may not be sure on the additional hike for 2023 that the June dot plot pencilled in but it has come around to the 4.5-4.75% 2024 dot.
  • Cumulative hikes: 0bp priced for Wednesday’s decision (unch from Fri close), 8bp for Nov (unch), 12bp for Dec terminal (+1.5bp) and closely followed by 11bp for Jan.
  • Cuts from terminal: 27bp to Jun’24 and 88bp to 4.57% in Dec’24 – both at fresh recent lows – and with the first cut from the current effective of 5.33% seen in July. On a similar basis, the -87bps for SFRU3/Z4 continues to set fresh lows (in terms of cuts priced) since the initial fallout of regional banking woes in March and before that Oct’22.