EU CAPITAL GOODS: Assa Abloy: 2Q25 Results

The United States Senate is poised to pass the GENIUS Act, a landmark crypto bill to create a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which are pegged to the value of the dollar. Craig Caplan at CSPAN notes that a final vote on the floor is expected at around 17:00 ET 22:00 BST. 

• The bill will be the first ever piece of crypto legislation to pass the Senate. It represents one of President Donald Trump’s biggest priorities in Congress, outside of the One Big Beautiful Bill, and takes a step towards making crypto a more mainstream financial asset.
• ABC notes: "The bill sets rules for stablecoin issuers, including a mandate that firms hold a reserve of assets underlying the cryptocurrency."
• Politico notes the bill is "expected to draw support from close to 18 Democrats after a month of turbulent negotiations with Republicans… The path to passage in the House, however, remains murky. Financial Services Chair French Hill [R-AK] is weighing [tying the bill with] a broader measure that would divide oversight of digital assets between market regulators.”
• Punchbowl reports that academics compared the bill to the 'Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000' which “rolled back regulations in key parts of the derivatives market and helped the product become mainstream in the years leading up [2008].”
• Punchbowl adds: “Others pointed to a 1994 law that reshaped the national banking landscape. The Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act allowed banks to branch across state lines.”

• The NY Fed services general activity index increased from -16.2 in May to -13.2 in June, offering a first look at broader business activity and sentiment in the first half of June (collected Jun 2-9).
• It continues a slow recovery from -19.3/-19.8 readings seen in Mar/Apr ahead of/with the announcement of reciprocal tariffs. These are still low levels, having averaged -2.4 in 2024 and +7.3 in 2019 for context.
• Realized inflation readings were mixed but ultimately point to increased price sensitivity. Prices paid increased sharply from 58.5 to 66.5 (highest since Feb 2023) whilst prices received only inched up from 20.7 to 21.0 having averaged 27.4 through Feb-Apr.  
• Latest capital spending indications offered notable weakness, falling from -8.3 to -12.6 for the lowest “current” figure since Jan 2021. The six-month ahead capital spending index did however continue to reverse its decline to a significantly weak -21.7 in April with -14.0 in May and now -8.7 in June, although prior to April that’s still the weakest since Sep 2020. If replicated more broadly, these point to a large correction for non-residential investment after it added 0.6pps to Y/Y real GDP growth in Q1.
• Employment meanwhile fell for a second month to -2.5 (lowest since March) although six-month ahead expectations improved more notably from -4.1 to 6.2 (highest since Feb).  

• The dollar is edging to the best levels of the session as markets catch-up with the post-data rise off lows for US yields, and take in increased nerves over the Israel-Iran crisis: firstly the sounding of air raid sirens and IDF warnings of incoming Iranian missiles, as well as the indications in Charles Gasparino's tweet that markets are beginning to consider the market ramifications of broader US involvement in the region.
• EUR/USD through to new daily lows headed into the London close, with GBP/USD following suit. The pair is now within range of a broken uptrendline drawn off the January low at 1.3512.
• Charles Gasparino posted: "Top Wall Street market watchers are closely reading the tea leaves on the possibility of Trump greenlighting the bunker busters on Iran for its obvious market implications, sources tell me."