EURGBP TECHS: Approaching Key Short-Term Support
- RES 4: 0.8980 High Sep 29
- RES 3: 0.8867 High Oct 12
- RES 2: 0.8776/8829 High Nov 16 / 09 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8700 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8579 @ 15:38 GMT Nov 24
- SUP 1: 0.8572 Low Nov 24
- SUP 2: 0.8560/59 Low Oct 31 / 76.4% of Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
- SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
- SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28
EURGBP edged lower again Thursday marking an extension of the bear leg from 0.8829, the Nov 9 high. A continuation lower would expose the Oct 31 low of 0.8560, where a break would resume bearish activity. This would open 0.8522, Aug 30 low. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode position and this suggests that the broader uptrend is intact. A break of 0.8560 would threaten a bullish theme. Key resistance is at 0.8829.
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EURJPY TECHS: Holding On To Monday’s Gains
- RES 4: 149.46 1.382 proj of the May 12 - Jun 28 - Aug 2 price swing
- RES 3: 148.88 High Dec 9 2014
- RES 2: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
- RES 1: 147.42 High Oct 25
- PRICE: 147.18 @ 16:03 BST Oct 25
- SUP 1: 145.64 / 143.80 High Sep 12 / Low Oct 24 and key support
- SUP 2: 141.99 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 140.90 Low Oct 10
- SUP 4: 139.44/137.40 Low Sep 29 / 26 and key support
The EURJPY uptrend remains intact and the latest sharp pullback appears to be a correction. The cross has found strong support below 144.18, the 20-day EMA and key support has been defined at 143.80, Monday’s low. A continuation higher would open last Friday’s high of 148.40. This is the bull trigger and a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies continue to highlight a bullish backdrop.
US: White House Press Conference Underway Shortly
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre is shortly due to deliver her regular press conference from the White House.
CANADA: VIEW: Barclays Look For Terminal 4.5% Before Potential Cuts 2H23
- Barclays expect a 75bp hike followed by 50bp to a likely terminal of 4.5%, but still open to a residual hike in January if inflation is stronger than the BoC expects.
- The need to hike rapidly into restrictive territory opens the door for rate cuts in 2H23.
- There are signs that the policy tightening is working its way through the economy as the data has deteriorated, including relative to the US.
- Barclays remain moderately constructive on the CAD in the medium-term as USD strength is likely to eventually fade given expensive valuations.
