AUSSIE BONDS: AOFM Weekly Issuance Slate

Mar-24 01:02

The AOFM has released its weekly issuance slate:

  • On Tuesday 28 March it plans to sell A$150mn of the 0.75% 21 November 2027 Indexed Bond.
  • On Wednesday 29 March it plans to sell A$800mn of the 3.75% 21 May 2034 Bond.
  • On Thursday 30 March it plans to sell A$1.0bn of the 9 June 2023 Note, A$1.0bn of the 7 July 2023 Note & A$500mn of the 8 September 2023 Note.
  • On Friday 31 March it plans to sell A$500mn of the 0.25% 21 November 2025 Bond.

Historical bullets

US TSYS: ACGB Spill Over Adds Incremental Support

Feb-22 00:46

The spill over from the impulse in ACGBs in lieu of Q4 wage data out of Australia nudges Tsys further away from early session cheaps, leaving the major benchmarks running 0.5-2.0bp richer across the curve, as the belly lags and the wings lead. TYH3 trades at best levels of the day as a result, last +0-02 at 111-04, operating at the top of a 0-05+ range.

AUSSIE BONDS: Bid In Lieu Of WPI

Feb-22 00:41

Aussie bonds pull away from session lows as the Q4 WPI print of +3.3% Y/Y provides a miss vs. wider market & RBA expectations, which stood at +3.5% Y/Y, although we should remember that the RBA has flagged signals from business re: increasing near-term wage pressure. YM -2.0 & XM -7.0, comfortably off worst levels of the day post-data, with terminal cash rate pricing coming in to sit just above 4.25% after sitting around 4.35% pre-data. Cash ACGBs run 2-7bp cheaper, with 10s weakening the most on the curve.

AUD: A$ Dips Post Wages Miss, But Follow Through Selling Limited

Feb-22 00:40

AUD/USD dipped post the Q4 wages miss. From around session highs of .6865, we fell to a low into the 0.6830/35 region. We have stabilized somewhat now, back near 0.6850. Outside of NZD, which sits slightly weaker, ahead of the upcoming RBNZ meeting, the A$ is underperforming the rest of the G10.

  • The q/q wages outcome was 0.8%, versus 1.0% expected. The y/y print came in at 3.3% also below market expectations of 3.5% (which was also the RBA's forecast). At the margin this result should provide the RBA some comfort that wage pressures are not spiraling rapidly higher.
  • Other data showed construction work done falling -0.4% in Q4 (versus +1.5% expected), although Q3 was revised higher to 3.7% (from 2.2%).
  • Not surprisingly, AU bond yields are lower post the wages data. The 3yr bond yield got close to 3.70%, but is now back near 3.60%. The trend in AU-US yield spreads has mostly been sideways at the front end, although slightly weaker in the 10yr space, back to -7bps, versus flat at the end of last week.