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Germany, Spain and France look to hold conventional auctions this week, Belgium is scheduled to hold an ORI auction while Italy is scheduled to hold a buyback. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week of E24.6bln, down from E31.2bln last week.

For the full MNI EGB Supply Daily publication with a look ahead to the next two weeks of issuance and a recap of Q3 issuance plans, click here.

• Germany will kick off issuance for the quarter tomorrow with a E6bln auction to launch the new 10-year Aug-35 Bund ISIN (DE000BU2Z056). Note that the size of this auction was increased by E1bln from E5bln in the Q3 calendar update. The E6bln auction size is the largest for a non-Schatz German auction since 2011 (and the largest of any German auction since September 2023). This is also the only E6bln German auction scheduled for Q3. The coupon will be announced this morning.
• On Wednesday, Italy has announced it will hold a buyback for up to E5bln via the Banca d’Italia. The MEF will look to buyback the following: the 3.10% Aug-26 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005607269), the 3.80% Apr-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005538597), the 1.60% Jun-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005170839), the 1.25% Dec-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005210650) and the Apr-26 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005428617).
  • Note that this is in addition to the E16.4bln redemption of the formerly 5-year BTP that was due on 1 July.

• RES 4: 107.690 High Apr 30 
• RES 3: 107.610 High May 23 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 107.430/475 High Jun 13 / High May 27
• RES 1: 107.335 High Jun 26 
• PRICE: 107.260 @ 06:21 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 107.195/180 Low Jun 6 / 23    
• SUP 2: 107.125 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 3: 107.000 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 106.890 2.000 proj of the May 23 - 29 - 30 price swing

Schatz futures traded lower Friday but for now, the contract remains inside a range and price is trading below the Jun 13 high. Support to watch is 107.195, the Jun 6 low. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would reinstate a bearish threat and signal scope for an extension towards 107.125, the May 12 low. On the upside, clearance of 107.470, the May 30 high, is required to strengthen a bullish condition. Initial firm resistance is 107.430, Jun 13 high.

Spain, Belgium, the ESM, Greece and the EU are still due to sell bills this week, while France has already come to the market. We expect issuance to be E20.8bln in first round operations, up from E18.1bln last week. 

• This morning, Spain will look to issue a combined E5-6bln of the 6-month Jan 9, 2026 letras and the new 12-month Jul 10, 2026 letras.
• Also this morning, Belgium will look to come to the market with E2.8-3.2bln of TCs: An indicative E1.2bln of the 4-month Oct 16, 2025 TC, an indicative E0.8bln of the 7-month Jan 15, 2026 TC, and an indicative E1.0bln of the 11-month Jun 11, 2026 TC.
• Additionally today, the ESM will look to sell up to E1.1bln of the new 3-month Oct 9, 2025 bills.
• Tomorrow, Greece will look to issue E500mln of the new 13-week Oct 3, 2025 GTB.
• Finally tomorrow, the EU will look to come to the market with up to E1.0bln of the 3-month Oct 3, 2025 EU-bill, up to E1.0bln of the 6-month Jan 9, 2026 EU-bill and up to E1.5bln of the new 12-month Jul 3, 2026 EU-bill.