EU FINANCIALS: AIB Group: Moody's Upgrades BCA         

• CBK (18/12/26) vs (17/12/27) 32p, trades for the 2027 2.14 in 9.5k.

There are no OI in those strikes, new Positions.

Latest stretch higher in GBP is putting GBP/USD on course for a test of the major resistance we've flagged at 1.3589: clearance here puts prices at the highest since mid-July fully reverses the fade into the early August lows.

• GBP has been the primary beneficiary of the USD-led weakness in recent weakness - with the contrast between BoE and Fed policy cemented on the hawkish BoE cut last week, limiting the pricing of UK rate cuts into year-end, and through to the Autumn Budget - the next major macro event in the medium-term (likely late October/early November).
• Growth numbers due tomorrow are expected to show a sharp slowing in quarterly growth to 0.1% from 0.7% in the prior quarter - but an upside surprise here would catalyse a move north of the current range and extend the spell of not-as-bad-as-feared UK economic data.
• The downtick in front-end implied GBP vols coincides with improving net risk reversals - likely implying a cheapening of put vol that covers both the Sept and Nov MPC, priced for a cumulative 11bps of cuts across both meetings.
• On GBP, Rabobank write that they see GBP's recent better tone running out of steam, with the BoE cutting in November - with this week's growth data possibly confirming stagflationary fears.

Latest block trade lodged at 06:00:30 NY/11:00:30 London

• SFRU5 96.00/96.125/96.25 call fly 4K blocked at 1.0, looks like a buyer vs. 95.955 (10% delta).