FINANCIALS: AIB Group (AIB) - Q1 25 Sales Headlines

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 164.19 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 161.90 @ 07:09 GMT Apr 1 
• SUP 1: 161.05 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 160.72 50-day EMA and pivot support  
• SUP 3: 158.90 Low Mar 10  
• SUP 4: 158.00 Round number support 

A bullish trend condition in EURJPY remains intact and recent weakness between Mar 18 - 20 appears corrective. This sell-off allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Pivot support is 160.72, the 50-day EMA. A break of it would signal potential for a deeper retracement. For bulls, sights are on 164.08, the Jan 24 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition and open 164.90, the Dec 30 ‘24 high.

Germany, Spain and France are all due to hold conventional auctions this week whilst Finland is due to hold an ORI operation. The EFSF held a syndication yesterday. There is also the potential for Austrian, Finnish and Italian syndications in upcoming weeks. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E32.8bln, slightly higher than last week’s E32.1bln.

For more on this week's issuance and a look ahead to next week's issuance see the full PDF here.

• This morning, Germany will look to sell E4.5bln of the 2.20% Mar-27 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22080).
• Tomorrow, Germany will return to the market to look to sell E4.5bln of the 2.50% Feb-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z049).

• RES 4: 93.79 High Mar 4     
• RES 3: 93.01 High Mar 20        
• RES 2: 92.49 Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 4 high
• RES 1: 92.17 50.0% retracement of the Mar 4 - 27 bear cycle                       
• PRICE: 91.69 @ Close Mar 31
• SUP 1: 91.59 Low Mar 31                                      
• SUP 2: 91.03 Low Mar 28  
• SUP 3: 90.55 Low Mar 27 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 4: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing

The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish, however, recent gains highlight a corrective bounce and this signals scope for a stronger recovery near-term. An extension would open 92.49, a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 4 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the short-term bull cycle. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 90.55, the Mar 27 low.