EM CEEMEA CREDIT: AEFES: FY 24 Results, neutral for spreads
Mar-06 08:32
Anadolu Efes (AEFES: -/BB+neg/BB)
- Improvement in volumes into Q4, FCF weaker, leverage modest, no update on Russia – neutral for spreads.
- Volumes improving into Q424, with beer volumes +8% QoQ in Q424, with all regions performing strongly – Russia growing low teens. CCI volumes showing improvement in Q424 +7.3% QoQ, Turkey +18% and Pakistan +5% after 6 quarters of decline. FY24 volumes were +0.9% due to weak CCI at the beginning of the year.
- Small miss on Rev’s, reported at TRY231.35bn vs est of TRY236.1bn, EBITDA of TRY39.4bn and net income of 13.1bn was weaker than est of 17.4bn (Bloomberg).
- FCF was weaker into Q4 due to higher working capital, higher capex and financial expenses. FCF for the FY24 was rep’d at TRY1.8bn and non-adj leverage of 0.6x.
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RIKSBANK: January Minutes May Provide Signal On Rate Outlook
Feb-04 08:18
The Riksbank January meeting minutes are due today at 0830GMT/0930CET. This release may provide a clearer signal on the rate outlook than the decision itself, given the non-committal policy statement guidance.
- The January rate decision (25bp cut to 2.25%) was unanimous, though Governor Thedeen suggested in the press conference that the minutes would highlight “nuances” in opinions amongst Board members.
- Key focus will be on whether the three doves from the December meeting minutes (Breman, Jansson and Bunge) still see a case for more cuts in H1 2025, and whether the March decision should be considered live.
- We expect Thedeen and Seim to continue offering a more cautious outlook for policy rates. In the January press conference, Thedeen said that the Riksbank’s “best assessment” was that there would be no more rate cuts (in line with the December MPR rate path). However, this assessment was heavily caveated, with the Governor citing significant uncertainty to the outlook (e.g. from potential trade barriers and economic fragmentation) and the need to assess incoming data in the context of the December projections.
STIR: SFRZ5/Z6 Sold
Feb-04 08:11
SFRZ5/Z6 4K given at -0.5.
GILTS: Weaker On Canadian Tariff Reprieve
Feb-04 08:10
Gilts sell off at the open, adjusting to Canada’s short-term tariff reprieve that has been covered in detail elsewhere.
- Futures as low as 92.67 before a recovery to 92.80.
- The recent corrective bullish cycle in the contract extended yesterday.
- Initial support and resistance located at the 20-day EMA (92.11) and yesterday’s high (93.54), respectively.
- Yields 1.5-3.0bp higher, curve bear steepens.
- GBP STIRs still operate around pre-gilt open levels, ~80bp of BoE cuts priced through year-end.
- The DMO will come to market with GBP4.25bln of the 4.375 Mar-30 gilt this morning.
- Little else of note on the UK calendar, which will leave focus on cross-asset cues and tariff-related headlines.
- Our BoE preview will be published later today.
