EU-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 3/6/12-Month EU-Bills

The Eurozone unemployment rate printed at 6.2% in July as expected, a joint series low, but revisions have again altered recent trends. The data have quite often been revised and June saw a fairly typical 0.1pp upward revision to 6.3%, although the +0.2pp to 6.4% in May was more surprising. It leaves a trend of recent improvement but with question marks over the data. 

• What had been seen as three months at joint cycle lows of 6.2% through Apr-Jun, tying with 6.2% in Oct-Nov 2024, Eurostat now estimate a latest pattern of 6.3% in Apr, 6.4% in May, 6.3% in Jun and 6.2% in July, tying with 6.2% only in Nov 2024.
• These revisions were largest for the <25 year old category although this has also seen the largest recent improvement, currently at 13.9% in July after 14.3% (initial 14.1) in Jun, 14.5% (initial 14.3) in May and 14.4% (initial 14.3) in Apr. 13.9% is a new series low vs 14.0% in early 2023.
• The >25 year old unemployment rate meanwhile held steady at 5.5% for what is now a seventh consecutive month following upward revisions to 5.4% in Apr-Jun.
• Eurostat doesn’t offer much specific information for these revisions, simply noting that “The data in this News Release can be subject to revisions, caused by updates to the seasonally adjusted series whenever new monthly data are added; the inclusion of the most recent EU-LFS data in the calculation process; update of seasonal adjustment models with complete annual data.”
• We feel the lack of zero-sum revisions rules out seasonal adjustment related adjustments (there has been clear upward move to the revisions), suggesting new data to hand. 

• RES 4: 113-06   2.236 proj of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 113-00   Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 112-28+ 2.000 proj of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing  
• RES 1: 112-20+ High Aug 28 
• PRICE:‌‌ 112-11+ @ 10:31 BST Sep 1
• SUP 1: 111-31   20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 111-18+ 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 110-25   Low Aug 1 

The trend outlook in Treasury futures remains bullish. Last week’s gains delivered a print above 112-15+, the Aug 5 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the bull cycle and paves the way for a climb towards the 113-00 handle. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reinforcing current trend conditions. First support to watch is 111-31, the 20-day EMA.

• The Dollar has been mixed so far Today, it was in the red going into the European session, with the EUR the best performer.
• While it tried to pare some of its losses, the Greenback is in the red against all the G10, aside from the JPY and the CAD that are flat.
• Most notable moves have been in the Scandies, both the SEK and the NOK have outperformed and have taken over the EUR s the best G10 Currencies.
• Local Banks have noted some local demand but have also suggested the lack of demand for the Dollar with the US Labour Day.
• EURSEK falls to its lowest level since around mid June and eyeing at test at the Psychological 11.0000 level.
• USDSEK is the most interesting chart as the cross makes an attempt at the 2025 low, this level stands at 9.3792, which is also its lowest level since April 2022.