EURIBOR: 1yr Calendar Spreads

• Although would expect for these to really start picking up after the European CPIs due on Friday, the likes of Citi have recommended rolling short June Positions early.
• As noted on the Open, the calendar spreads are notable in the Bobl with 70k outright spreads trading at 93 and 94. Last Week (Thursday) saw 100k trade at 95.

Still expect for the pace to really start on Friday, but for now as of Yesterday the Pace stands at:

• UBA: 10%.
• RXA: 7%.
• OEA: 7%.
• DUA: 2%.
• IKA: 1%.
• OAT: 3%.

VBYM261 110.25 calls paper paid 0-05 on 9K. These expire on Monday. OI of 9.6K as of yesterday.

"The German Council of Economic Experts expects German GDP to increase by 0.5% in real terms in 2026. This represents a downward revision of 0.4 percentage points compared to its 2025 Annual Report. This revision is primarily due to the impact of the Iran War. For 2027, the council sees growth of 0.8%. [...] Downside risks to the German GDP forecast include, in particular, a longer duration and more severe impact of the Iran-Iraq War than anticipated". Full release here.

• For context, Bloomberg consensus currently sees 2026 GDP at 0.7%, and 2027 GDP at 1.2%.g
• Consumer price inflation is expected to average 3.0% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027. Core inflation is expected to be 2.4% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027 according to the council.
• Most recent German GDP data was released last week for Q1, with the release highlighted by a weak domestic demand figure of -0.9% Q/Q which would be even worse had it not been for government spending (see here).