EQUITIES: 15% of S&P Market Cap Due to Report Today, Spanning 52 Companies

• RES 4: 94.57 2.236 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing 
• RES 3: 94.15 2.000 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing     
• RES 2: 94.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 93.76 Intraday high
• PRICE: 93.70 @ 13:51 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 92.70 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 92.23 Low Jun 16 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 91.56 Low Jun 9   
• SUP 4: 91.44 Low Jun 8        

A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and recent weakness has proved to be a correction. Today’s gains have resulted in a print above 93.68, the Jun 13 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started May 22. This would open 94.00. Key short-term support has been defined 92.23, the Jun 16 low. First support lies at 92.70, the 20-day EMA.

Johnson Redbook retail sales posted a 4.9% Y/Y rise in the week to Jun 28, accelerating from 4.5% the week prior and bringing the month-to-date sales increase to 4.9% Y/Y (up from the prior week's MTD of 4.8% but on the light side compared to retailers' targeted 5.7%). Technically, June is a 5-week retail month which ends July 5.

• The anecdotes of the report are largely upbeat, pointing to both rising activity in the week alongside discounting and some anticipation of Amazon Prime Day: "The Fourth of July holiday promotions, combined with summer heat waves and the demand for seasonal goods, have led to an increase in customer traffic and sales for the week. Many stores now display summer clearance items alongside fall merchandise. Since this year's July 4th falls on a Friday, many retailers are responding by offering sales promotions that extend from the weekend before to the weekend following Independence Day. Shoppers are stocking up on food and beverages in anticipation of the holiday. Meanwhile, retailers are preparing to compete with Amazon's Prime Day sales, scheduled for July 8th to 11th."
• Amid some weakness seen in recent consumer data, including a downward revision to Q1 private consumption and May's PCE, Johnson Redbook sales' resilience casts a slightly more positive light on the consumer though there's clearly been a slowdown in this series since April's 6.7% Y/Y post-2022 high (likely influenced to some degree by pulling forward purchases ahead of tariffs).
• June's Census Bureau retail sales report (Jun 17) will be eyed for improvement (was a soft 3.3% Y/Y), especially in ex-auto sales (-0.3% M/M in May), albeit the Control Group sales were solid at +0.4% M/M.

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• RES 4: 132.42 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 22 price swing
• RES 3: 132.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 2: 131.95 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 130.73/131.33 Intraday high / High Jun 20
• PRICE: 130.63 @ 13:34 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 130.00 Low Jun 30              
• SUP 2: 129.67 76.4% retracement of the May 14 - Jun 13 bull leg  
• SUP 3: 129.30 Low May 22   
• SUP 4: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger  

Recent weakness in Bund futures resulted in a print below key short-term support at 130.12, the Jun 5 low. A clear break of this price point would highlight a bearish threat, undermine the recent bullish theme, and signal scope for an extension towards 129.30, the May 22 low. The contract has recovered from yesterday’s low. Key resistance has been defined at 131.95, the Jun 13 high. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bullish theme.