Analysts look to the sharp rise in portfolio management PPI as rationale for upward revisions to core PCE forecasts, even as airfares and vehicle insurance PPI moderated/held steady in January. A reminder that the 5.5% M/M rise in portfolio management was the largest such increase since January 2021, after the Jan '24 equity market rally.

• JPMorgan revise up their PCE forecast to 0.47% M/M and 2.9% Y/Y (from 0.29% M/M, 2.7% Y/Y prior).
• Goldman Sachs now look for core PCE at 0.43% (from 0.35% post-CPI), corresponding to a 2.85% Y/Y rate.
• Pantheon look for a 0.32% M/M print, noting that "that nearly a quarter of the January increase will come from the portfolio management component".