TTF second month implied volatility has fallen to the lowest since May at 75% with futures prices in a bearish trend since the start of November.

• The decline reflects the comfortable supplies this winter with muted demand, a warm weather forecast into the start of February, strong renewables output and high LNG volumes at sea.
• Natural gas demand in Europe was 17% below the 2019-21 average in December according to Bruegel data.
• The decline in front month TTF has paused this week with small gains today supported by some delayed LNG arrivals from Qatar due to Red Sea diversions.
• The healthy near term supplies are weighing on the front of the curve with the Feb 2024 - Sum 24 down to as low as 1.15€/MWh.
• The Sum 24 – Win 24 spread has edged back up to -5.1€/MWh after falling as wide as -5.2€/MWh yesterday. The Sum24-Sum25 spread is steadying today after widening to around -2.4€/MWh yesterday.
  • TTF FEB 24 up 2.1% at 27.81€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 24 up 2.1% at 28.9€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 up 1.5% at 33.99€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 25 up 1.2% at 31.05€/MWh

Source: Bloomberg