The TTF forward curve across 2023-25 has fallen back into the coal to gas switching range to support incremental gas demand according to Timera Energy.

• This Coal Switching Price range represents strong support for European hub prices, given the large volumes of gas fired generation that can be incentivised to ramp up by relatively small additional price declines.
• Coal and carbon prices determine the cost competitiveness and is an important driver of structurally higher forward European gas prices compared to historical levels. The coal and carbon prices remain higher than pre-crisis levels with the EU ETS testing 100 €/t in late Feb.
• Gas prices approaching Brent parity could incentivise oil to gas switching in refinery feedstock optimisation and upstream production segments.

Source: Timera Energy