Although the Swedish October LFS unemployment rate fell two tenths to 8.4% (vs 8.6% cons), the overall state of the labour market remains subdued. The Riksbank November minutes hinted that a return to a 25bp cutting pace is likely from December. The totality of the October labour market data (from the LFS, PES and sentiment surveys) supports this outlook.

• The decline in the unemployment rate largely reflected a smaller labour force, with the employment rate also falling two tenths to 68.6%.
• Nevertheless, the 3mma of the unemployment rate ticked back down to 8.4%, after reaching a cycle high of 8.5% last month.
• Although labour market easing implied by the LFS data has cooled in recent months, the Public Employment Service’s unemployment claims rate has continued to drift higher.
• The Economic Tendency Indicator’s expected employment series has also deteriorated, reaching a year-to-date low of zero in October.