We also see a dovish shift in GBP STIRs following the U.S. data, with cues from the U.S. dominating in recent trade.
- BoE-dated OIS now prices 21.5bp of cuts for November, 35bp of cuts through December and 95bp of cuts through June, little changed to 2bp more dovish on the day.
- SONIA futures last -4.0 to +2.0.
- Month economic activity data headlines the UK calendar ahead of the weekend, although this is usually the least market-moving round of tier 1 domestic data, given the Bank’s mandate/inflation target.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Nov-24 | 4.733 | -21.7 |
Dec-24 | 4.602 | -34.8 |
Feb-25 | 4.394 | -55.6 |
Mar-25 | 4.258 | -69.2 |
May-25 | 4.080 | -87.0 |
Jun-25 | 3.996 | -95.4 |
Aug-25 | 3.874 | -107.6 |
Sep-25 | 3.823 | -112.7 |
Nov-25 | 3.759 | -119.1 |
