ACGBs (YM +1.0 & XM +2.5) are slightly richer after a subdued start to the week for US tsys. After Friday’s post-payroll rally, the US 10-year traded in a 5bp range, finishing unchanged at 4.28%. The surprise French election results were not enough to cause any material changes. The market’s focus this week will be the US CPI release on Wednesday.

  • According to MNI’s technicals team, recent gains in TYU4 have stopped short of any meaningful test of the first resistance and bull trigger at 111-01 - the June 14th high.
  • President Biden reaffirmed that he will not step down saying he “is firmly committed to staying in this race to the end, and to beating Trump” to quell an intraparty revolt.
  • Cash ACGBs are 2-3bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +5bps.
  • Swap rates are 2-3bps higher, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps softer across meetings, with mid-2025 meetings leading. Terminal rate expectations sit at 4.48%.
  • Today, the local calendar will see Consumer and Business Confidence data.
  • The AOFM plans to sell A$700mn of the 3.75% 21 May 2034 bond tomorrow and A$800mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2029 bond on Friday.

AUSSIE BONDS: Slightly Richer, US Tsys Bear-Flatten, Confidence Data Due

Last updated at:Jul-08 23:12By: Gavin Stacey

ACGBs (YM +1.0 & XM +2.5) are slightly richer after a subdued start to the week for US tsys. After Friday’s post-payroll rally, the US 10-year traded in a 5bp range, finishing unchanged at 4.28%. The surprise French election results were not enough to cause any material changes. The market’s focus this week will be the US CPI release on Wednesday.

  • According to MNI’s technicals team, recent gains in TYU4 have stopped short of any meaningful test of the first resistance and bull trigger at 111-01 - the June 14th high.
  • President Biden reaffirmed that he will not step down saying he “is firmly committed to staying in this race to the end, and to beating Trump” to quell an intraparty revolt.
  • Cash ACGBs are 2-3bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +5bps.
  • Swap rates are 2-3bps higher, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
  • The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +3.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps softer across meetings, with mid-2025 meetings leading. Terminal rate expectations sit at 4.48%.
  • Today, the local calendar will see Consumer and Business Confidence data.
  • The AOFM plans to sell A$700mn of the 3.75% 21 May 2034 bond tomorrow and A$800mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2029 bond on Friday.

MNI Podcasts

Unearthing fresh policy thinking & market intelligence.

Copyright 2024Twitter, Xlinkedin logo