SEK has weakened alongside the EUR today, with European equities extending lower and US tariff-related growth concerns increasing expectations for more aggressive monetary easing.

• USDSEK pierced the July 30 high at 10.8843 overnight, but has since moved away from session highs. Initial resistance is seen around 11.0000 and 11.0079, the latter corresponding to trendline resistance drawn from the September 2022 high.
• A similar trendline (also drawn from the Sep 2022 high) has already been breached in AUDSEK today, where 7.1984 (May 9 high) is the next topside target.
• SEK may be more exposed to US trade policy changes than NOK (with the oil/gas sector providing some insulation in Norway), helping NOKSEK rise 0.5% intraday, targeting the August 16 high at 0.9842.
• A 50bp cut at tomorrow’s Riksbank decision is widely expected. Market focus will be on whether the policy statement keeps the door open to another 50bp cut in December, and to what extent the implications of the US election result is discussed.
• MNI’s Riksbank preview is here.
• Note that Swedish October flash inflation is due tomorrow at 0700GMT/0800CET. Analysts expect CPIF ex-energy at 2.0% Y/Y, above the Riksbank’s 1.8% September MPR projection. However, this will be too late to impact tomorrow’s rate decision.