Russia production has been resilient to the pressure from Europe and the US but the worst is yet to come, according to Rystad Energy research.

• Russian crude output is expected to remain high for the remainder of the summer but then expected to decline due to an economic downturn and a drop in refinery runs and crude exports.
• Russia increased oil production in June and July primarily driven by higher refinery runs following a 1mbpd drop in April.
• Rystad Energy estimate average 2022 Russian crude production at 9.6mbpd
• The EU embargo on Russian crude is set to come in force by the end of this year. They see the possibility of lags in embargo implementation as well as low compliance during the first months of 2023 due to economic woes and the logistics involved in replacing the Russian barrels.