Analysts told Reuters that a return of sanctions on Venezuela would cause its crude output to stagnate, erasing any recent gains made.

• The temporary license will expire April 18 unless renewed. The US has said it will not do so unless there is more progress towards a democratic election this year.
• Oil production was 783k b/d in 2023, compared to 569k b/d in 2020.
• Production is expected to grow slightly from 2024-2026, before declining onwards if sanctions are fully restored.
• If the license is extended, it would create a modest increase in output to above 1m b/d from 2025.
• The fate of authorisation granted by the US since 2022 to Chevron, ENI, Repsol, and Maurel 7 Prom remains unclear. If these licenses remain while under sanctions, production would still decline but not collapse, analysts told Reuters.